Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon Odds
| Rafa Garcia Odds | +205 |
| Jared Gordon Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-330/+240) |
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| Noche UFC odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on Noche UFC with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon prediction for Noche UFC on Saturday, September 13, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Jared “Flash” Gordon looks to continue his ascent in the lightweight division against the battle-tested Rafa Garcia at UFC Noche. Both fighters will bring a well-rounded game to the Octagon on Saturday, but I see a clear edge for one of the most underrated fighters in the entire sport at this point in Jared Gordon.
Here's my Garcia vs. Gordon pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Garcia | Gordon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:30 | 10:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/5/1994 | 9/6/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.01 | 5.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.47 | 3.91 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.21 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 32% |
| TD Def | 77% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0 |
You can make the case Gordon should be on a six fight winning streak. Even if you disagree with that sentiment, there is no denying his skills have evolved to the point of a true contender in his weight class.
There were very few people projecting such a rise for Gordon at his advanced age, now 36 years old, but his improvements couldn’t be more evident.
Gordon has only entered the octagon once in each of the last two years, but both performances were career-best. Gordon took little time disposing of veteran Thiago Moises his last time out, displaying improved power behind traditionally excellent technique.
His loss to Nasrat Haqparast was on razor thin margins, and it has aged extremely well. Haqparast went on to defeat the likes of Esteban Ribovics and hasn’t suffered a loss since early 2022. MMA math shouldn’t be relied upon as a tool in handicapping, but Gordon has shown an ability to go toe-to-toe with legitimate contenders at lightweight.
Rafa Garcia is 5-4 in his UFC tenure and represents a step down in competition for Gordon. Skill-for-skill, Garcia may not possess an advantage in any singular area heading into this bout. Garcia must pursue the takedown, but he will not be successful in his attempts.
Pundits may point to Garcia averaging 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, but it’s difficult to envision him mat-returning a fighter with the experience of Gordon. If Gordon was not overwhelmed by the physicality of Paddy Pimblett, it’s highly doubtful Garcia will be able to impose his will here.
Gordon’s career takedown defense sits at 62%, but don’t let that number fool you – he has only been taken down by one fighter over his last seven bouts and that was against an elite wrestler in Grant Dawson. This fight is going to play out mostly on the feet, which bodes well for the favorite.
Gordon will pressure Garcia and put him on the defensive for extended periods. Gordon lands over 5 significant strikes per minute and has very good timing with his takedowns when he changes levels.
Gordon is the better boxer of the two and his footwork will pay dividends against a predictable attack from Garcia. Gordon can also push a pace that may drain the gas tank of his opponent, especially if Garcia fails to create prolonged grappling exchanges.
Lastly, if Garcia is successful in getting inside and clinches Gordon, that may not actually be a position he can avoid danger. Gordon excels in the clinch with body work and short elbows.
Garcia vs. Gordon Pick, Prediction
Garcia’s last three wins have been over Maheshate, Clay Guida and Vinc Pichel – all of whom are nowhere near the level of Gordon. Gordon’s experience and savvy will allow him to maximize his skill advantage and dominate this fight.
I am going to play this fight two ways, by paying the chalk on the moneyline and taking the value with Gordon inside the distance.
Oddsmakers are lining Gordon’s win condition with implied odds of 52%-60% that he gets his hand raised on the scorecards, but I believe Gordon is live for a finish – especially if Garcia’s cardio fails to hold up. Don’t be afraid to lay the chalk on a fighter with a skill advantage wherever this fight goes.
John's Picks: Jared Gordon moneyline -225 (Fanatics) | Jared Gordon inside the distance +450 (DraftKings)
