Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira Odds
| Pavlovich Odds | -625 |
| Teixeira Odds | +455 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+135/-175) |
| Location | Galaxy Arena, Macau, China |
| Bout Time | 8:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Macau odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Macau with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction for UFC Macau on Saturday, May 30, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC Macau main card will feature an unexpected matchup between heavyweights who are at very different points in their careers. 34-year-old former title challenger Sergei Pavlovich has won two consecutive fights after dropping a pair of matches that derailed his meteoric rise to the top. His opponent, Tallison Teixeira, will have youth on his side, but that may be his only advantage in this bout as he finds himself as a deserved massive underdog against the veteran.
Here's my Pavlovich vs. Teixeira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pavlovich | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-3 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:42 | 4:32 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 257 lbs. | 258 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 84" | 83" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/13/1992 | 12/07/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.43 | 5.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 64% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.62 | 3.86 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.48 | 2.48 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 30% |
| TD Def | 75% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Pavlovich has only been defeated by the upper-echelon of the division, making this match with the unproven Teixeira one I was not expecting to see anytime soon. After establishing himself as the premier power puncher in the organization by knocking out four straight opponents in round one in 2022 and 2023, it felt like it was only a matter of time before he captured the heavyweight championship.
His showdown with Tom Aspinall ended quickly, as he was defeated in spectacular fashion. That result not only halted his momentum, but clearly shook his confidence in his next appearance. That came against his former training partner, Alexander Volkov. Volkov nearly outstruck Pavlovich at a two-to-one ratio, while also connecting at a much more accurate rate, 52% to 34%.
The sound defeat at the hands of Volkov was followed up by a bounce-back performance that did not inspire much confidence in Pavlovich regaining his previous form; he was able to get his hand raised, albeit in boring fashion, over dangerous striker Jairzinho Rozenstruik. However, his most recentwin over Waldo Cortes-Acosta has renewed optimism around Pavlovich.
Pavlovich outstruck Cortes-Acosta and was more accurate as he turned up the heat as the fight progressed. He was more comfortable using his full arsenal of offensive weaponry, landing 35 significant strikes to the head, 12 to the body, and 14 to the legs of Cortes-Acosta. The loss for Cortes-Acosta is his only defeat over a nine-fight span covering August of 2023 through January of 2026.
Pavlovich is much more battle-tested and will enjoy a massive edge in experience. Teixeira’s future is fairly unstable for a fighter getting this type of matchup with such a highly ranked opponent. We cannot trust his durability at this point, and in his decision win over Tai Tuivasa his gas tank failed him, bringing his cardio and stamina into question, as well.
Teixeira did not defeat a fighter with a winning professional record until his 6th fight. That fight was one of two wins he earned in LFA, but both of those were over fighters with just three professional fights on their record, meaning he was called up to Dana White Contender Series without being truly tested against an experienced opponent.
On top of this simply being a case of just too much too soon for the 26 year-old Brazilian, he is north of +400 to win this fight for one critical reason – he is too hittable. Teixeira has a 42% significant striking defense, and his lack of head movement is going to be a major obstacle to his career.
Pavlovich vs. Teixeira Pick, Prediction
Even if Teixeira is able to manage distance in an improved manner, it does not mean he will be able to do so for the duration of the fight. Sure, heavyweight fights are highly volatile but oddsmakers are rightfully listing Pavlovich as a huge favorite. It is only a matter of time before we see the more powerful and proven man land the fight-ending strike in the form of an overhand right.
Teixeira is too green to pull the upset here and the most likely path to victory for Pavlovich is by KO/TKO. Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO in round 1 is sitting around +130, but I am willing to pay a little bit of a premium to gain an additional two and half minutes to allow Pavlovich to get the job done. The best way to do this is on DraftKings, by combining Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO with under 1.5 rounds.
John's Pick: Pavlovich by KO/TKO & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP -120 (DraftKings)
