Ricky Simon vs. Brian Kelleher Odds
Ricky Simon and Brian Kelleher were supposed to face off in the first card of the year on Fight Island, but that fight had to be rescheduled due to Kelleher testing positive for COVID-19. Now they find themselves facing off on the UFC 258 main card due to a late scratch in the fight between Jim Miller and Bobby Green.
Kelleher was active all 2020 — he won three of his four fights over the course of the year, all by finish. Simon is riding a two-fight win streak after submitting Gaetano Pirrello on Fight Island in January.
Both men have a chance to prove they belong on the Pay-Per-View stage. So where is the value in the matchup?
Below I break preview the matchup and odds for what should be a Fight of the Night contender Saturday. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Simon | Kelleher | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-3 | 22-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:28 | 7:32 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/31/92 | 8/19/86 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.09 | 4.45 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.41 | 5.97 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 7.07 | 1.20 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 25% |
| TD Def | 72% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Ricky Simon vs. Brian Kelleher Betting Pick
Simon scored a submission win against an overmatched debutant in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 20 and is making a quick turnaround at 145 pounds against Brian Kelleher, who finished three opponents last year (two by guillotine).
I think bettors are overestimating Kelleher’s ability to snatch the guillotine against Simon in particular when he shoots for legs (7.07 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 53% accuracy vs. 72% defense for Kelleher) given his propensity for that choke in particular, which account for eight of his 22 career wins.
The guillotine won’t be his primary gameplan, rather an aggressive form of defense designed specifically for the type of fighter he is facing. Kelleher is still more likely to win if he can keep this fight standing and either outpace Simon on volume or clip him.
Simon should control the majority of minutes here with pressure wrestling, and I would consider a half unit play on the chalk moneyline at -220 if his odds take a dip. Still, I prefer Simon’s decision prop at -120 or better (projected -139) – which is my read on pretty much any one of his fights.
The Pick: Ricky Simon Wins by Decision -120
