UFC 298 Parlays: We’ve Got Secret Juice in Our All-Violence Parlay (Saturday, February 17)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Paulo Costa of Brazil
Check out our UFC 298 parlays for Saturday night's pay-per-view event, including a traditional parlay and a same-game parlay (SGP).
For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 298 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 298 takes place on Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 299 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
With 12 fights in all, UFC 298 parlay betting options are plentiful. And I've put together a regular parlay, as well as a same-game parlay (SGP), for Saturday's big pay-per-view card.
UFC 298 Parlay
UFC 298 is the first of three PPVs over the next eight weeks, and I’d argue this card may present some of the best values across all three events.
As is usual, I have handpicked three spots in which I expect violence to render the judges unnecessary.
Let’s break down the three fighters whom I am targeting this week and parlaying together to pay 20-to-1.
Parlay Leg 1: Rinya Nakamura by Finish (-175)
Rinya Nakamura is the biggest favorite on the card, as high as -1400 at some books, and for good reason. He is obviously dangerous wherever the fight plays out while showcasing explosive power on the feet. But it is the high-level wrestling background that will spell trouble for his opponent, Carlos Vera.
Vera has not been very active in recent years, he's now 36, and he may not even be a UFC-caliber fighter at this stage in his career.
Vera’s takedown defense will not be good enough to keep the fight standing, and against an improving prospect in Nakamura, we are getting a massive discount on the favorite to win by finish solely because his last fight went to the scorecards.
This time around, Vera will not survive all three rounds.
Parlay Leg 2: Paulo Costa by KO/TKO (+350)
This leg of the parlay is clearly the piece in which you may have the most doubts. Paulo Costa has fought only once since the beginning of 2022, and that fight did not end in a finish. However, by every account of Costa leading up to this fight, he has looked to be in great shape, and this is his chance to quickly ascend the middleweight rankings once more.
Against Robert Whittaker, Costa landing the fight-ending strike is unquestionably the most likely win condition for "Mr. Secret Juice."
(UFC bettors: Check out the latest developments on the launch of North Carolina sports betting online.)
Whittaker may be only one year Costa’s elder in this bout, but you cannot disregard the damage he has sustained throughout his career.
Whittaker’s last fight was concerning if you are confident in his ability to withstand the attrition of strikes from a dangerous opponent. I am willing to bet Costa has a better-than-20% chance of replicating that result, and I am getting twice the price of his moneyline alone.
Parlay Leg 3: Ilia Topuria by Finish (+200)
A new champion will be crowned on Saturday night, and it shouldn’t reach the scorecards. In fact, if this fight does go all five rounds, that probably spells trouble for the challenger.
Champ Alexander Volkanovski is now 35 and is coming off the first KO loss of his career. While I am not writing the champion off, he is at a power disadvantage against the younger more explosive Topuria. Volkanovski will undoubtedly attack the legs of Topuria in the early going, something other fighters have had success doing.
However, it may leave him in the pocket a split second too long, and Topuria has the power and speed to make the champion pay.
Similar to the Costa leg of the parlay, we can get double the price of his moneyline by playing him in what I consider to be his most likely path to victory.
UFC 298 All-Violence Parlay: +2021 at DraftKings
UFC 298 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays can sometimes be a good way to extract extra value in correlating fight results if you can correctly predict how a certain bout plays out. This week we’ll be targeting the main-card welterweight battle between Ian Machado Garry and Geoff Neal.
Garry is undefeated as a professional fighter but has not fought somebody the level of Neal. Neal, on the other hand, has been tested against many of the world’s best. The odds are simply too long in favor of Garry in this spot against a fighter the caliber of Neal. However, if we are going to back the underdog, let’s do it in a manner that adds to our payout.
Over each fighter's past five contests inside the UFC octagon, only one has been determined inside of two rounds. Thus, I expect a prolonged match between Garry and Neal.
Neal has landed more than 60 significant strikes in each of his last three fights, and in every fight in his UFC career that did not end within two rounds, he was able to reach that mark. Adding this particular leg to the parlay negates Over 1.5 rounds in terms of adding to our payout.
Lastly, in all three of Neal’s previous three fights, the first round remained standing, and those first rounds averaged 66.6 total significant strikes landed.
Thus, my UFC 298 same-game parlay features these three legs:
- Geoff Neal moneyline (3way)
- Neal 60+ significant strikes landed
- 50+ total significant strikes landed – Round 1
UFC 298 SGP: +675 at DraftKings
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
