UFC 298 Props: 6 Oh-So-Juicy Picks and Predictions from the MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, February 17)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s strawweight Mackenzie Dern
Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 298 props with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +28.6 units an +8.8% ROI per bet to date.
The squad will look to keep its successful 2024 run underway with UFC 298. The event takes place at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the pay-per-view main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
This week, we've got UFC props from Liam Heslin, Billy Ward, Clint MacLean, Dan Tom, Tony Sartori and Bryan Fonseca.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Use our FanDuel promo code for your UFC 298 betting.
Liam Heslin: Miranda Maverick by Submission (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
This week I'm targeting the event opener between women's flyweights Andrea Lee (+154) and Miranda Maverick (-184).
Maverick enters this fight not only as the younger fighter (35 vs. 26), but her career is trending in a much better position. Lee, meanwhile, is fighting to avoid a fourth straight defeat, and another loss will likely result in a UFC pink slip.
There are a few reasons I like Maverick to win by submission, which is still available at surprisingly good +500 odds if you shop around.
By now, Maverick's sheer strength is well known, as are her abilities on the mat. But I'm suspecting that she enters this fight in her best grappling form yet. After nearly a decade of training, Maverick recently earned her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. She'll also been competing in high-level jiu-jitsu tournaments to put that belt to use.
I also like this bet because Maverick, who has seven submissions in 12 career wins, specifically requested this matchup. The ladies previously trained together, and if Maverick wanted the fight, I imagine there's a good reason why. Training partners usually know each other's game intimately, and I imagine Maverick saw an opening she think she can exploit.
Plus, we have to consider Maverick's low center of gravity and takedown ability (2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy). We also need to consider Lee's difficulty stopping takedowns (10 in her past six bouts). Ultimately, I think Maverick gets her opening to ground this fight, and I doubt Lee is shoring up any major holes in the twilight of her career.
I'm going with Maverick via submission, which is available at +500 odds at Betfred and PointsBet as of Saturday morning.
The Pick: Miranda Maverick by Submission (+500 at Betfred)
Billy Ward: Val Woodburn by KO (+420)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Of all the ways Val Woodburn could win this fight, this is certainly one of them. In fact, I’d argue that it’s the likeliest, if he has any chance at all.
Woodburn is best known for being sacrificed to the altar of Bo Nickal in his UFC debut. Woodburn took that fight on just a few days' notice, up a weight class, and against the best UFC prospect perhaps ever. Woodburn closed as the heaviest underdog in UFC history for that fight, and he was knocked out in under 40 seconds.
That’s far from a fair gauge of his skill set, but it seems to be influencing the line. Woodburn is a roughly +270 underdog against Oban Elliot (-335), a Contender Series signee who won his way into the UFC with a majority-decision victory.
Prior to the fight against Nickal, Woodburn was a 7-0 prospect with five knockouts, with recent wins over reasonably stiff competition. Viewed through that lens, this line should be much closer.
Of course, Elliot appears to have a significant grappling edge, which is where this prop comes into play. The favorite probably has most of the decision equity here, and he should spend large portions of this fight in top control. Every round starts on the feet, though, which gives Woodburn at least a puncher’s chance. That’s enough for me at these long odds.
The Pick: Val Woodburn by KO (+420 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Mackenzie Dern by Submission (+333)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
The narrative that "we just saw this fight" is pretty wild when you think about it. I know that Mackenzie Dern (+118) just got flatlined by a power striker, but Jessica Andrade could not be more different than her next opponent, Amanda Lemos (-138).
Andrade is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt and, in fact, she submitted Lemos herself with a standing arm triangle not too long ago. While Lemos has developed as an MMA fighter she had a late-in-life start in the sport, and grappling has not been her strength.
Lemos also has a tendency to start fast and then fade as the fight goes on.
(UFC fans: Check out the latest developments on the pending launch of North Carolina sports betting.)
Dern, on the other hand, has shown us that she can extend a fight and get stronger the deeper it goes. Yes, Dern could get KO'd early in this fight if she isn't careful, but the longer it goes, the more it favors her.
I don't care if Dern has to pull guard, jump the gilly, or even climb Lemos like a tree. There are ways she can get this fight into the grappling realm, and as soon as she does, she holds a massive advantage.
Search around for Dern at +300 or better. We'll officially take her at +333 at bet365.
The Pick: Mackenzie Dern by Submission (+333 at bet365)
Dan Tom: Roman Kopylov by KO (+375)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
For this week's prop squad submission, I decided to target the middleweight main-card opener between Anthony Hernandez (-240) and Roman Kopylov (+198).
Despite being a big fan of Hernandez and believing that he's the justified favorite, I can't help but see Kopylov as the perfect spoiler in this spot.
Hernandez's pace and pressure are difficult to bet against, so I wouldn't be surprised if his style allows him to climb high in the rankings.
However, aside from officially standing 0-1 to UFC-level southpaws (losing to Markus Perez), Hernandez appears to have a sizeable susceptibility to body shots – showing unfavorable reactions in both victory and defeat.
Not only is Kopylov a savvy southpaw, but the Russian fighter is arguably the best bodyworker in the division, possessing body-shot stoppages in almost every method possible.
Kopylov's counter-grappling was questionable earlier on in his career, but the 32-year-old has made marked improvements to his wrestling since moving shop to Makhachkala, Dagestan.
Add in the fact that Hernandez was preparing for a completely different stance and style in Ikram Aliskerov, and I'll take a flier on Kopylov to upset the apple cart by getting another short-notice stoppage.
The Pick: Roman Kopylov by KO (+375 at bet365)
Tony Sartori: Geoff Neal by Decision (+700)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
A big welterweight bout is set to take place on Saturday's UFC 298 main card with No. 8 UFC contender Geoff Neal (+200) slated to go against No. 10 ranked Ian Machado Garry (-245). There are so many out-of-octagon "things" surrounding this fight, but let's not overlook the fact that Neal can hang in there with anyone inside the octagon at 170 pounds.
Yes, Neal is coming off a loss, but that was in a relatively closely contested battle against the esteemed Shavkat Rakhmonov, who many (including myself) tab as the future of the 170-pound division. Neal gave Shavkat the toughest test of his career, by far, and landed some devastating blows that affected the likely future champion.
More and more these days, we see judges reward damage over anything else, and I think Neal can damage Garry to tilt a round or two in his favor, which is all we would need to cash this 7-1 long shot. Of course, Garry is undefeated, which is why we are catching such a long number.
However, the are a couple of reasons why I think he is overpriced in this spot. First, the guy really has not beaten anyone worth anything except for Neil Magny, an aging veteran who has lost three of his past six fights and frankly should have lost four of those six if Mike Malott did not have one of the biggest final-minute meltdowns we have seen in quite some time.
Second, Garry's defense is exposable. We saw Song Kenan drop him with a lead left hook, and, with all due respect to Kenan, that guy is nowhere near the striking level of Neal.
Lastly, I alluded to the out-of-octagon distractions surrounding this fight. I am not going to get into that for this article, and there's a link above for anyone who doesn't know what I am talking about. But I just find it so hard to believe that the weight of the outside noise has not taken a toll on Garry over the past couple of months when he should be 100% focused on a live underdog like Neal.
In a fight where Neal can deliver some damage, I think it's worth a 7-1 flier that judges go his direction on Saturday if the bout makes it to the final bell.
The Pick: Geoff Neal by Decision (+700 at FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Ilia Topuria by KO (+400)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET
Ilia Topuria (+108) was too much of an underdog when this fight opened, and while feather champion Alexander Volkanovski (-126) winning this bout wouldn't stun me at all – I'd feel comfortable betting him on the moneyline – I think you have to take a shot at Topuria getting the stoppage in Saturday night's UFC 298 main event.
Volkanovski was last seen in the UFC octagon in October, just four months ago. He got stopped in Round 1 by Islam Makhachev while moving up for a shot at the lightweight title.
One of the hardest things to do in combat sports is to drop back down in weight after losing by knockout in the weight above, especially at the age of 35, in Volk's case.
Topuria isn't the favorite because of Volkanovski's pedigree, but history tells us that the young rising challenger often wins these fights.
I think the long-shot sprinkle on a stoppage is worthwhile. Topuria is 14-0 and has four knockouts, three in six UFC fights, all within the first two rounds.
You can find +350 to +360 odds for Topuria via KO at multiple sportsbooks, but I'm officially going to target the smaller Hard Rock Sportsbook, which has +400 odds.
The Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO (+400 at Hard Rock)
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