UFC 300 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway: Take Underdog in BMF Title Fight (Saturday, April 13)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC veteran and “BMF” fighter Max Holloway
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Odds
| 11 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway odds at UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13.
In what is arguably one of the most eye-catching matchups at UFC 300, Justin Gaethej will defend his "Baddest Motherf—er" title opposite Max Holloway at 155 pounds.
A former featherweight champion who is currently riding a two-fight winning streak in said division, Holloway will return to lightweight for the first time since his encounter with Dustin Poirier back at UFC 236.
Thankfully for Holloway, he has had a lot more time to prepare for this latest campaign beyond his natural weight class – something he'll undoubtedly need against someone like Gaethje.
Although you could argue that Gaethje should be challenging for the lightweight championship, "The Highlight" seemingly has little issue giving the fans (and the promotion) the fights they want to see.
This is our BMF title fight prediction and pick for UFC 300.
Tale of the Tape
| Gaethje | Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-4 | 25-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:46 | 15:56 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/14/1988 | 12/4/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.50 | 4.75 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 53% |
| TD Def | 75% | 84% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Considering where these two typically like to conduct business, no one should be shocked if Gaethje and Holloway look to sort things out on their feet.
A durable, high-volume striker, Holloway represents a fighter archetype that I often refer to as "a builder."
Typically taking the early portions of a fight to get his reads, Holloway is good about gathering information on his opposition that he can use down the line.
Whether Holloway's playing off previous success or stealing his opponent's techniques outright, the talented Hawaiian can swing the balance of a fight in a single round due to his momentum-based tactics.
Holloway also goes to the body religiously, which helps him set up finishing blows and also tire his foes.
Going to the body could pay massive dividends against an explosive fighter like Gaethje down the stretch, but encroaching on the reigning BMF champion comes with some serious costs.
Even though Gaethje initially stepped onto the scene as an ultra-aggressive marauder who would eat as many strikes as he could give, the 35-year-old slugger has steadily shifted his style under the care of Trevor Wittman.
A striking coach who focuses on the basics, Wittman has quietly turned Gaethje into an economical killing machine that is fueled by fundamentals and countering opportunities.
Doing a better job of keeping his feet beneath him, Gaethje will now unload his hardwired hooks and leg kicks with even more impact than before.
Holloway should have a solid submission edge if this gets to the ground, but I suspect that grappling exchanges and tie-ups are short and sweet given Gaethje's superb takedown defense.
Gaethje vs. Holloway Pick
Despite this fight opening wider in favor of the champion, public money has been coming in on the Hawaiian challenger, listing Gaethje -170 and Holloway +138 as of this writing.
Even though I don't disagree with who is favored, I find it hard to lay the chalk on Gaethje in this spot.
Gaethje could very well become the first person to stop the former featherweight kingpin, but I can also understand the love coming in for Holloway considering some of the stylistic factors at play.
Regardless of the stance pairing, we've seen counter-striking, bodywork and timing change-ups become a common culprit for Gaethje throughout his career.
For that reason, I believe that the value is on Holloway to score the upset.
If you're just looking for large numbers or potential hedges on your Gaethje exposure, then I suggest taking a look at Holloway to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 (or you can do the inverse if you're bullish on the favorite).
I also don't hate sprinkles on split-decision props for either side given that they're currently going off in the neighborhood of +800, but I'll be kicking coverage with a stab on the Hawaiian's moneyline.
The Pick: Max Holloway (+138 at FanDuel)
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