UFC 327 looked to be one of the best cards on the calendar, but the flyweight title fight between Josh Van and Tatsuro Taira is now pushed back to UFC 328. We still have a solid card, with a main event between the always-fun wildman Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg for the vacant light-heavyweight title.
We've got our usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time, with the event streaming on Paramount+ and CBS.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 327 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 327 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Jiri Prochazka (-125) vs. Carlos Ulberg (+105)
In a world without Alex Pereira, Jiri Prochazka has probably held the light heavyweight championship since he won it from Glover Teixeira back at UFC 275. "BJP" is 6-2 in the UFC with six finishes and six performance bonuses, with both losses coming to the stone hands of "Poatan."
However, he's got a tough test this weekend against Carlos Ulberg. Like Pereira, Ulberg is a big, athletic former kickboxer who continues to get better with each MMA fight. While Ulberg is now on the wrong side of 35, that's not especially old for the weight class. Plus, he has fewer "fight miles" on the odometer than most 35-year-olds, thanks to his time spent modeling and starring on reality TV shows.
Ulberg hasn't lost since his UFC debut, with nine straight wins, including three straight against top-ten opposition. He's been less dominant than Prochazka in terms of finishes, but better in terms of "clean" wins where he doesn't take much damage or appear to be in any real danger. That creates the dichotomy at play here, with the former champion doing his best work in wild brawls, while Ulberg prefers to pick his opponents apart.
The fight likely comes down to whether or not Prochazka can take some clean shots from Ulberg on his way to landing his own, or if Ulberg has the Pereira-level power to put the slight favorite away. All things considered, the opening lines are about right, so I'll be passing on this one until I can do some further tape study.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Nate Landwehr (-122) vs. Cub Swanson (+102)
There's a similar dynamic at play in this featherweight fight as in the main event, with a slight favorite known for taking tons of damage on his way to victory competing against a more polished technician.
This fight also continues the inspiring trend of the UFC sending retiring fighters out with a good matchup, as the legendary Cub Swanson has officially named this his retirement fight. Swanson has been with the UFC since 2011 and was with the WEC before that, giving him nearly 20 years of Zuffa-affiliated service.
Landwehr hasn't declared his retirement (that I know of), but is about to turn 38, putting him just four years younger than Swanson. He's also heavily reliant on chin and heart to get through fights, but that seems to be failing him, with consecutive knockout losses coming into this weekend. On the other hand, the 42-year-old Swanson is coming off a win and seems to be in better shape than Landwehr overall.
For that reason, plus some early line movement already going his way, I'm taking the slight underdog while he's still plus-money. The best current line on Swanson is +108 at FanDuel, but it looks like we won't get those prices for long, so move quickly.
Verdict: Swanson Undervalued
Charled Radtke (-180) vs. Francisco Prado (+150)
Another underdog catching some early-week steam is Francisco Prado. The 23-year-old is far more talented than his 1-4 promotional records indicate, with all of his losses being reasonably close matches against much older and more seasoned opponents, including a split decision in his last fight.
The problem for Prado has been his size. He's slightly too big to make the cut to lightweight safely, but is clearly undersized for welterweight. However, he's seemingly been putting on some muscle — as 23-year-old pro athletes tend to do — and should eventually have the strength to compete with other welterweights.
I consider him the more skilfull and talented fighter in his matchup against Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke, despite the latter's 4-2 UFC record. Radtke's four wins have been against opponents ranked 49th or lower in Tapology's rankings, while he's been knocked out in each of his two losses.
The betting markets seem to agree with me, with Prado's line dropping already from a peak of +200 or so last week. I want to get in while we're still getting +150 or better, with the best current line being +154 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Prado Undervalued
