Read our UFC predictions for the Saturday, July 11 event live from the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting at 9:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Nashville Moneyline Projections
UFC Nashville Prop Projections
UFC Nashville Best Bets
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
John LanFranca, Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
Some people look to avoid low-level MMA I like to lean into it. When it comes to Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos, you’ll be hard pressed to find two men less skilled matching up in the octagon the entirety of 2025.
There is one glaring difference, however. One man is pretty good at striking, and the other man isn’t really good at anything.
Junior Tafa is dropping down from heavyweight for this fight, and while his complete lack of takedown defense and mat presence should scare you from ever laying chalk on such a fighter, by all accounts, he has taken this cut to light heavyweight seriously.
Tafa not only looks like he is in very good shape in comparison to his previous form, but he also will be battling men not nearly as physically strong, which will obviously bode well for his chances of potentially stuffing a takedown.
If I had to sum up this best bet in a single sentence, it would be that I don’t believe Tokkos could wrestle for three rounds, even if he wanted to. Tafa is going to get his chances to put his hands on Tokkos, and that is all he really needs to end this fight.
After Tokkos lost his Dana White Contender Series opportunity back in the summer of 2022, he made his way back to the UFC with three consecutive wins in regional MMA. Those three opponents’ records were 3-2, 1-7 and 19-10.
If Tafa can prove to just be a UFC-level light heavyweight, he will dispose of Tokkos rather easily.
The Pick: Junior Tafa -170 (Fanatics)
Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Outside of his friends and family, I'm not sure anybody will be rooting for Morgan Charriere on Saturday.
The Frenchman is traveling to Tennessee to take on Clarksville native Nate "The Train" Landwehr in a featherweight fight.
Outside of regional biases, Landwehr is a fan favorite both due to his all-action fighting style and skills on the microphone.
