UFC on ESPN 40 PrizePicks Props: The Prop Play for Headliner Jamahal Hill (Saturday, August 6)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Jamahal Hill
UFC on ESPN 40 takes place Saturday in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET) with a Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill headliner and the tournament finals for The Ultimate Fighter 30.
There’s plenty of opportunity to get some action in on the ESPN-televised fight card, even if you don’t live in a legal betting state.
That’s where PrizePicks comes in. The site allows you to bet on individual fighters’ statistics, similar to player props in other sports. Below, I’ll go over my favorite parlay, with some additional options to increase the return if we get them all correct.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC on ESPN 40 PrizePicks Parlay
Jamahal Hill Significant Strikes – Over 30.5
Jamahal Hill’s significant strikes prop on PrizePicks is predicated on him finishing Thiago Santos in a hurry. Hill was able to dispatch his past two opponents with just 10 significant strikes – combined – both in the first round.
From a per-minute standpoint, Hill is excellent with more than seven strikes landed. We essentially just need a full round out of him for this prop to go over the likely mark – though Santos absorbs only 2.37 per minute, so expect Hill’s rate to be somewhat lower on Saturday.
The “over 1.5 rounds” prop is -155 on DraftKings, though, so odds are this one lasts long enough for Hill to pass this mark. Santos is also extremely durable, going to five-round decisions with Jon Jones, Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker
There’s a case to be made that Hill is a better pure striker than the entirety of that group – including Jones if you ask me – but Santos should be able to avoid being put away too quickly.
Based on all of the betting data, I’m projecting this one to last about 11 minutes on average. That means Hill needs only about three strikes per minute to hit the over here. My projections have him close to double that, giving us plenty of wiggle room.
If you’re concerned about Hill picking up a quick finish, his fantasy score prop is 106.5. Based on PrizePicks scoring, any first-round win that includes a knockout is guaranteed to go over that number.
Michal Oleksiejczuk Fight Time – Under 10 Minutes
Three of Michal Oleksiejczuk’s four UFC wins have come via first-round knockout; that’s 75% for those keeping track. He’s also implied to win 85% or more of the time on Saturday at every sportsbook as of Thursday.
He’s fighting “Smilin” Sam Alvey, who has a chance to claim sole ownership of the longest winless streak in UFC history this weekend. Alvey has been finished in four of the seven losses along the way, all in the second round.
Oleksiejczuk clearly has the power to extend that streak, with a knockdown rate roughly three times the UFC average. The 36-year-old Alvey is unlikely to have improved his chin recently, so I’m expecting Oleksiejczuk to test it early (and often).
Two rounds should be plenty of time for Alvey to fail that test, so I’m taking the under here.
- Terrance McKinney Over 20.5 Significant Strikes: This is an absurdly low number for Terrance McKinney, who lands more than four strikes per minute in his UFC career. Similarly to Hill, it’s based on the first handful of strikes putting away his opponent, Erick Gonzalez. While Gonzales was knocked out in his UFC debut, it took just more than 30 strikes to do so. My projections have McKinney for 37 or so, with an average fight time of roughly six minutes.
- Stephanie Egger under 2.5 takedowns: While Stephanie Egger’s per-15 takedown stats look solid at 2.87, she’s yet to get more than two in a single fight. That’s because she’s either finished fights once they hit the mat, or had the takedowns defended. Her opponent Marya Bueno Silva has solid (69%) takedown defense, and she’s capable of pulling submissions herself. This is a perfect example of a prop with a lot of routes to the under hitting.
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