The UFC heads down under for a rare non-PPV card in Perth, though it's still packed with the typical local flavor. The main event features Australian light heavyweight Carlos Ulberg taking on former title challenger Dominick Reyes. All in all, there are 13 Australians on the card.
The 14-fight card starts at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the main card officially kicking off at 10:00. The entire event airs on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Perth odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Perth Predictions & Luck Ratings
Carlos Ulberg (-265) vs. Dominick Reyes (+215)
This one has the feel of an up-and-coming prospect in Ulberg taking on a former top contender on his way down the rankings. Ulberg arrived in the UFC in 2021, more than a year after Dominick Reyes challenged Jon Jones for the lightweight title.
However, Reyes is less than a year older than Ulberg, who got a late start to MMA following his various ventures in kickboxing, modeling, and reality television. The City Kickboxing product has had no trouble adjusting, though, winning eight straight with five finishes following a loss in his debut.
Reyes rebounded from a four-fight losing streak that began with his unsuccessful title bid with three straight knockout wins. He seems to have fully recovered from the various injuries that plagued him following the Jones fight, and looks like the surging fighter who earned that shot.
My initial read is that Ulberg is the deserving favorite, but the line feels a bit wide. Both men have fought a similar level of opponent in recent fights and have won those bouts definitively. Ulberg seems to be getting most of the betting action, though, so any bet on Reyes can wait until later in the week.
Verdict: Reyes Undervalued (But Wait)
Josias Musasa (-155) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+130)
Josias Musasa is off to an ignominious start to his UFC career. After earning his way into the promotion with a split decision on the Contender Series, he missed weight in his debut and then lost as a -800 underdog to Carlos Vera.
I was on the Musasa fade in my Luck Ratings for that event, largely thanks to his (arguably undeserved) split decision win on the Contender Series. Getting dropped by a 37-year-old submission specialist in his debut did nothing to change my evaluation of him for the better.
On the other side, Colby Thicknesse made his UFC debut on less than a week's notice against Aleksandre Topuria, brother of UFC lightweight champion Ilia. He took Topuria to a reasonably close decision despite being a heavy underdog, and this is probably a large step down for the Australian.
This line actually opened with Thicknesse as a slight favorite, but it seems to have peaked at the current prices. The best available odds are +140 at BetMGM, but I'd take any of the +130 or better lines.
Verdict: Thicknesse Undervalued
Rolando Bedoya (-112) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (-108)
We've got a handful of what should be very close fights at UFC Perth, with the most balanced line belonging to the lightweight bout between Rolando Bedoya and Jamie Mullarkey.
Mullarkey is most known for taking some bad knockout losses in recent fights, with three of his last four ending that way. The lone win in between was a decision over John Makdessi, who was 38 at the time and released from the promotion afterwards.
Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC but has seen the final bell in all three fights, outstriking his opponents but suffering costly knockdowns in two of the three bouts. That's not much of a concern against Mullarkey, who has limited power and durability and is unlikely to engage in a firefight.
While I view Bedoya as undervalued at effectively a pick 'em price, his likeliest win condition over Mullarkey is a knockout, which will come with much better odds. For that reason, we don't need to rush a bet on Bedoya, but it wouldn't be the worst idea either.
Verdict: Bedoya Undervalued
