Read our UFC Vegas 111 predictions for the Saturday, November 8 event at the UFC Apex. The entire 12-fight card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 7:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 111 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 111 Prop Projections
Jamaal Emmers vs. Hyder Amil
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
"Hurricane" Hyder Amil suffered the first loss of his career in his last bout, where his ultra-aggressive style finally caught up to him against Jose Delgado, who finished him with a knee just 26 seconds into their contest. Delgado has four knockdowns in four UFC fights, though, so that says as much about Delgado's power as it does about Amil, who'd never been knocked down before.
The UFC matchmakers have given him another dangerous opponent on paper in Jamaal Emmers, who is coming off his own knockout victory. Emmers has alternated wins and losses across his eight-fight UFC career, with the most recent victories coming via knockout.
However, the combined UFC record of the fighters he's beaten is just 2-8. That makes Emmers a useful litmus test to find out if fighters are truly UFC-level, as he beats those below that line while losing to those above it.
Recent loss aside, Amil falls into the latter camp. He was 3-0 before his recent defeat, and remains the only man to beat William Gomis (5-1 UFC record) inside the Octagon. He also should have a fairly significant physical edge over Emmers, who has looked a step slower since having his knee destroyed by Pat Sabatini in 2021 and is now 36 years old.
None of those are the main reasons I'm betting on Hyder Amil, though. Emmers has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, with the Sabatini fight the most striking example. He dropped the credentialed BJJ black belt — but followed him to the ground, where he was quickly submitted.
He's also failed to press his advantage in other losses, like not attempting takedowns until the third round of split decision defeats against Giga Chikadze and Jack Jenkins. He easily won the third round of both those fights, but it ultimately wasn't enough when two judges had him down 20-18 in each of those fights.
We could see a similar dynamic here against Amil, the more dangerous striker of the pair. Emmers' best hope is likely his grappling, but I have very little faith in him using it before it's too late.
For that reason, I'm happy to take Amil's moneyline even after the movement this week that has pushed it from -130 to -142 at DraftKings, which has the best odds as of this writing.
The Pick: Hyder Amil -142 (DraftKings)
Joseph Morales vs. Matt Schnell
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
