Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales Odds
| Schnell Odds | +320 |
| Morales Odds | -410 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 111 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 111 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales prediction for UFC Vegas 110on Saturday, November 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The Ultimate Fighter season 33 winner Joseph Morales was impressive in his title-clinching win, picking up a second-round submission as a heavy underdog in the flyweight finale. Now he comes in as an equally heavy favorite for his follow-up performance against Matt Schnell, a veteran who "retired" in 2024 only to return with a win this April. Can "Bopo" justify his favoritism this time around, or will the veteran Schnell prove too crafty?
Here's my Schnell vs. Morales pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Schnell | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-9 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:06 | 9:09 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/15/1990 | 8/22/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.13 | 2.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.17 | 2.11 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.49 | 1.23 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 42% |
| TD Def | 43% | 28% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 2.9 |
This is the second stint in the UFC for Morales, who went 1-2 across three fights in 2017 and 2018 before being released. However, those losses have aged fairly well in retrospect. One came to future flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, and the other was via split decision.
He also made massive improvements between his two stints with the promotion. In his initial run, he primarily relied on his boxing, attempting just two takedowns across three appearances. While that skill has remained, and arguably improved, he's made huge strides with his grappling. The team Sonnen fighter relied primarily on his grappling ability in the TUF house, then picked up two takedowns in as many rounds in the finale before securing a second-round submission victory.
He mixes his striking and wrestling well, using the threat of both to complement the other. His striking is heavily based on forward pressure, staying just close enough to his opposition to make them uncomfortable while peppering them with punches. That forward pressure allows him to easily disguise his takedown attempts, while also forcing his opponents to the fence, where they have less room to sprawl and escape takedowns.
That will be a crucial key against Schnell. "Danger" snapped a three-fight losing streak with his win over Jimmy Flick in April. While Flick is a solid jiu-jitsu practitioner, he's never been much of a takedown artist, and he was able to ground Schnell five times. In five previous fights, Flick had landed just two total takedowns.
That Schnell was able to still win a fight in which he was taken down that often is a testament to his grappling ability to an extent, but it's still not the ideal approach against a fighter like Morales. Flick posed very little threat on the feet, but Morales will be looking to do damage anytime Schnell is forced to transition back to standing.
Plus, there's the question of Schnell's durability. He's been knocked out five times in his seven UFC losses, with the other two coming via submission. Whether that is an issue of Schnell's chin or his ability to fight back when losing is an open question, but either way leads to the same result.
Once fights go against Schnell, he tends to find a way out, either by panic tapping to submissions or being finished with strikes.
Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales Pick, Prediction
That factor from Schnell is why I'm comfortable cutting the juice on this fight and playing Morales to win inside the distance.
There are a few approaches we could take, including the fight to end inside the distance (-220), Morales via submission (+150) or Morales' -7.5 point spread (-165). When considering the way this one could play out as well as the relative price tags, though, I'd rather just bet on Morales finding a finish of any kind.
While Morales typically picks up submissions, Schnell is more vulnerable to being knocked out, so picking a specific method isn't particularly comforting. The point spread is interesting, but since it's set at -7.5 instead of the typical -3.5, the only way Morales can cover is with a finish or a perfect 30-27 victory on all three scorecards. That latter option isn't worth paying an additional 35 cents of juice for.
That leaves us with his odds to win inside the distance, which are -130 at DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Morales Inside the Distance -130 (DraftKings)
