After a few weeks on the road, the UFC is back at the Apex for a pit stop before UFC 327. It's not the most star-studded card, but we should have a fun lightweight main event between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan to close out the 12-fight card.
We've got our usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time, with the event streaming on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 115 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 115 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Chris Duncan (-192) vs. Renato Moicano (+160)
We have a somewhat hastily thrown-together main event at UFC Vegas 115 this weekend, as Renato Moicano was originally set to face Brian Ortega at UFC 326 before Ortega pulled out with an injury. Instead, he steps in to fight Duncan, who comes into the bout with four straight wins and two performance bonuses in that stretch.
Moicano has dropped two in a row, though one was his last-minute title fight against Islam Makhachev. The other was a reasonably close decision against Beneil Dariush, his original opponent before he was called up to fight for the title.
That makes this a fairly significant step down for "Money Moicano" as Duncan is currently ranked #33 in Tapology's lightweight rankings. It's also an interesting stylistic matchup, with Duncan winning three of his last four via submission and Moicano known as an excellent grappler.
It makes sense to favor Duncan, though, given that he's four years younger and has been in much better form in recent fights. I'm not sure if it makes sense to favor him this heavily, but I'm also in no rush to get a bet in early. We should continue to see similar lines throughout the week, so I'll be waiting until I have time to dive deeper into the lines.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Lando Vannata (-245) vs. Darrius Flowers (+186) via FanDuel
This is a fight I never would've seen coming, as Lando Vannata hasn't fought in nearly three years and lost his last two fights. Darrius Flowers has been inactive for 20 months and has lost three straight, so I assumed that both fighters had been released from the UFC roster.
Apparently not, as they're being brought in (or back) to fill out this Apex card. It's hard to feel confident in the ability of either man, given the long layoffs, but my thesis here is that this line is probably too wide, given all of the unknowns on both sides. Plus, the last time Vannata won a fight, it was a split decision. He's also fought as low as featherweight, while Flowers has split time between lightweight and welterweight, so Flowers should have a considerable size edge here.
DraftKings currently doesn't even have this fight listed, but other books have been slowly moving the line to Vannata. I'm going to have a slight sprinkle on Flowers at some point, though I'm in no rush to get it down, considering the way the line has moved.
Verdict: Flowers Undervalued — Wait for Better Lines
Alice Pereira (-122) vs. Hailey Cowan (+102)
Alice Pereira gave us one of the most disappointing UFC debuts in recent memory last year, when the much-hyped prospect turned in a lackluster split decision loss against Montse Rendon. However, she was just 19 at the time, and theoretically should be making huge improvements between fights at this point in her career.
It's hard to have that level of optimism for Hailey Cowan, who is 0-2 in the UFC, earned her way into the promotion with a split decision on the Contender Series, and is 34 years old. She's also pulled out of more fights (three) than she's competed in (two) since joining the roster, and missed weight in one of the two fights that happened.
The UFC is clearly trying to build up "Golden Girl" here by giving her the most winnable fight they can. Cowan is literally the lowest-ranked women's bantamweight on the roster by Tapology — with Pereira just one spot ahead.
Plus, the line has shifted a bit towards Pereira even since I began writing this article, as she was -115 on DraftKings an hour or so ago. I'm not excited about it given her debut, but Pereira is the correct side here, so jump on it before the line moves even more. The best odds are -110 at Caesars.
Verdict: Pereira Undervalued
