We're back to our normal start time for UFC Vegas 118, the last show before the much-hyped event at the White House next weekend. This one features a welterweight main event between former champion Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim that closes out the 12-fight card airing at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Veags 118 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 118 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Belal Muhammad (-125) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (+105)
I was slightly surprised to see Muhammad as a favorite for this one, as the nearly 38-year-old looks to snap a two-fight losing streak. The first of those two losses was for the title, dropping his welterweight belt to Jack Della Maddalena in a fight that hasn't aged well, considering JDM's two-fight losing streak shortly thereafter. The clear decision loss to Ian Garry that followed for Muhammad isn't a bad loss necessarily, but it might be further confirmation that he's a step behind the young up-and-comers in the division.
Bonfim is certainly one of those, with four straight wins since being knocked out by Nicolas Dalby in his only career loss. He's been getting tougher opposition in each matchup, and largely has fought past-their-prime vets like Muhammad. While this is certainly the biggest step up in Bonfim's career, it's an appropriate one.
Stylistically, this is also a good spot for Bonfim. He's the faster and more dynamic striker, and also has an excellent front head lock choke series that could punish Muhammad for shooting for takedowns. My one concern for Bonfim is cardio, as this is his first five-round fight, and he's seemed to struggle a bit later in three-rounders.
However, that's not enough to stop me from betting on him while we can still get plus-money. The line has already dropped from +120 at open despite a majority of Tapology picks coming in on Muhammad, which is also a sharp signal. The best line on Monday is +115 via Caesars, but I'd take any plus-money number — while potentially looking to get Muhammad live at some point during the fight.
Verdict: Bonfim Undervalued
Fares Ziam (-325) vs. Tom Nolan (+260)
Both Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan come into this one with wins in 80% of their UFC bouts, and are both shy of their 30th birthdays. That makes this an exciting matchup of prospects in the stacked lightweight division, as the winner will likely get a ranked opponent next.
Ziam deserves to be favored here since he's faced somewhat tougher competition in his UFC career, and also has twice as many fights for the promotion. However, more than three-to-one seems far too long to me, given Nolan's excellent performance outside of his UFC debut.
The market seems to agree with me, as the line has pulled back a bit on Nolan after climbing as high as +285 at some outlets. DraftKings seems to be the last holdout among major domestic books, with the others already down to the +230 to +240 range on Monday afternoon. I'll take the slightly off-market line on Nolan, and hopefully cash some CLV if nothing else.
Verdict: Nolan Undervalued
Bruno Silva (-130) vs. Edgar Chairez (+110)
The line has already started shifting towards Bruno Silva in what is an extremely obvious Luck Ratings flyweight matchup.
Silva is coming off a very close split decision loss to Charles Johnson that was probably scored correctly, but certainly could've gone either way and not been a "robbery." He's taking on Edgar Chairez, who is coming off an extremely close split decision win over Felipe Bunes that was also probably correct, but could've gone either way.
Outside of the fact that I rate Charles Johnson, the only man with a UFC win over the champion Joshua Van, much more highly than Bunes, this line would likely look pretty different if Silva was coming off a win and Chairez off a loss.
Grab the widely available -130 line now before it slips any further, as it looks like the market is coming around to my line of thinking.
Verdict: Silva Undervalued
