Clippers vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2025

11.5 is okay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-for-first-round-playoff-games-on-monday-april-21-qs

OT pushed Game 1 over, but tempo + playoff pace say it won’t last. Clippers held Denver to 49 1H. LAC: 108.3 opp PPG (top 5), 46% FG allowed, 35% from 3. Both squads rank top 10 in halfcourt freq. Lue’s scheme works — just needs 48 full mins of it. Nuggets showed their hand: defense closes games. MPJ benched, Westbrook in for stops. Adelman: “We won this game defensively.” Jokic was great, but team shot just 43.6%. If MPJ stays quiet + Clippers slow pace, Under looks sharp again in Game 2. Clippers coughed up 20 TOs — kills rhythm, shortens games. Kawhi had 7. Harden: “Self-inflicted.” LAC will value possessions more. Slower, smarter play = fewer shots. Under hit in 37 of last 54 H2H. Expect a grind, not a shootout in Ball Arena.

Adjustments are coming. This feels like an overreaction to Game 1, where Gordon scored 25 points—6 of which came in overtime—and got to the line 10 times (only the second time all season that’s happened with Jokic and Murray both playing). A big part of his success came from the matchup: 66.7% of his made FGs were in the dunker spot, and he was defended by James Harden as the low man 36.8% of the time. Gordon took advantage, going 3-for-4 when matched up with him and consistently overpowering him. That led to Harden getting into foul trouble, and after the game, Ty Lue acknowledged the need for change: “That’s gonna happen, so we gotta be smart about it and mix those matchups a little bit more so he’s not on AG the whole game.” Expect more size on Gordon moving forward—likely Kawhi, Simmons, and Batum rotating as primary defenders. Also, with Denver’s ability to play through Jokic in the halfcourt and limit transition, Gordon’s spot-up threes won’t come as easily when his defender helps off to double. #PlayerProps

Bet rested Harden in G1s, fade the high in G2. Since his last MVP in 2018, he averages 31.8ppg in G1 off 3+ full days of rest, but plummets to 20.8ppg in G2. Point total dropped in 10 of 12 G2 by avg of 14ppg. Scored G1, mostly early, line up to 23.5. It’s Harden Mineshaft SZN.

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