David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) and Golden State Warriors forward Andre Iguodala (9)
- The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors are back in the NBA Finals.
- At 11-7 ATS, favorites have been the most profitable bet over the past three NBA Finals.
- Using our Bet Labs software, we break down historical trends for ATS, moneyline and over/under betting.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors will meet in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight year. The Warriors, who have taken two of three from the Cavs, are massive -1200 favorites to win the title again this year.
Using the data available at BetLabsSports.com, we broke down against the spread (ATS), moneyline and over/under results from the previous three postseason meetings between these two teams.
The Warriors own a 10-8 ATS record against the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals for a profit of +1.49 units and an 8.3% return on investment (ROI). Interestingly, Golden State’s average cover margin is -0.53 points over that span.
Home teams have the same 10-8 ATS record, but an average cover margin of 3.47 points.
Favorites are one game better than home teams at 11-7 ATS, for a profit of 3.43 units and a 19.1% ROI.
Golden State is 11-7 straight-up, but the large moneylines result in a loss of 1.47 units despite that winning record.
Home teams are also 11-7 and basically break even on the moneyline at -0.21 units.
And despite a 12-6 record, favorites are right around the break-even mark as well with a small loss of 0.05 units.
Totals have been incredibly even between these two teams, with overs going 9-8-1 for a tiny profit of +0.74 units. However, unders actually have a positive cover margin of +0.97 points despite losing 1.41 units.
In early Game 1 betting, 58% of tickets are on the Warriors as 12-point favorites. The current total of 214 is garnering 79% of bets on the under while 77% of moneyline bettors are taking at crack with the Cavaliers at +664.
More NBA Finals Coverage
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- Game 1 Trends: Underdog LeBron Has Been Historically Profitable
- Locky: Why I’m Betting the Over/Under in Game 1
- Download Our Free NBA Finals Prop Sheet
- The Angles: The Importance of George Hill and the Power of the Switch
- Should Golden State Bettors Be Wary of a Rested LeBron?
- Finding Value in Betting NBA Finals Exact Series Odds