We have another excellent slate on tap in the NBA today, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Monday, October 26.
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NBA Player Props for Monday, October 26
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Wizards vs. Hornets
Naz Reid Over 18.5 Points (-110)
I am backing Naz Reid to score over 18.5 points tonight against the Wizards. I thought long and hard about his combined points and assists prop last game, which was sitting at 20.5, and he went out there and dropped 23 points with zero assists.
We are just going to get rid of the assist market altogether for him right now and focus strictly on his scoring volume.
Reid played 37 minutes in his last outing because the Hornets really needed him on the floor to try and close out the Heat, who came storming back on a 25-4 run. He put up 23 points and nine rebounds in that game, and he had 17 points and six boards in the game prior.
In their season opener against the Nets, Reid went for 20 points while shooting the ball a staggering 19 times. I genuinely think he is in line for his best statistical season as a pro.
While his raw shooting efficiency might take a slight hit as he scales up, the raw scoring volume is going to be more consistent.
Reid is going to live right in this 16.5 to 18.5 point range a lot this year, which is obviously higher than what we grew accustomed to seeing during his time in Minnesota. However, he has a much bigger role in Charlotte, complete freedom to shoot the basketball, and he adds vital floor spacing to this offense.
Naz plays exactly the way head coach Charles Lee wants from a tactical standpoint, and you can tell this young Hornets roster looks to him as a veteran leader who has actually been on winning teams.
I also love this defensive matchup for him against Washington. Reid is going to be able to stretch the floor against the Wizards' frontcourt. He is already driving to the paint and creating for himself, and with guys like Alex Sarr and Anthony Davis not wanting to aggressively close out on the perimeter, Reid is going to get plenty of clean looks.
I expect a heavy dose of scoring from Naz tonight.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 18.5 Points (-110)Â
Mavericks vs. Heat
Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 Assists (-125)
By Joe Dellera
I'm backing Davion Mitchell to go over 6.5 assists tonight against the Mavericks, and I also love sprinkling a little bit on him to record a double-double at +550 on FanDuel.
Mitchell has been a fantastic facilitator so far, having already secured a double-double in two of his first three games this season while racking up assist totals of 11, 5, and 10 dimes. That lone five-assist outlier came against a Pistons squad that has been nails defensively, so I am not holding that slight dip against him.
Now, he gets a much softer matchup against Dallas, and the situational spot here is important for his floor time.
Miami is still desperately seeking that elusive first victory of the new campaign. Because of that early-season urgency, Erik Spoelstra is going to leave his primary guys out on the floor for as long as he needs to tonight to finally secure a win.
We simply don't have to worry about Mitchell's minutes being artificially capped or the rotation getting cute.
When you dive into the underlying metrics, the volume is undeniably there; Davion is currently averaging 8.7 dimes on a healthy 14.3 potential assists per game.
While it is fair to point out that his assist conversion rate is running a little high right now, I am completely fine trusting it because he happens to have an elite finisher in Giannis Antetokounmpo rolling to the rim and cleaning up those looks.
I am placing a full unit on the over 6.5 assists and a 0.15-unit sprinkle on the double-double.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 Assists (-125)Â
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers
Ayo Dosunmu Over 12.5 Points (-114)
By Joe Dellera
The betting market is currently pricing the props for this game as if there is absolutely no chance that Anthony Edwards sits out, but I think that is a glaring oversight.
Ant is officially listed on the injury report as questionable, and the Timberwolves are entering a grueling situational spot, playing their third game in four days while on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Edwards was noticeably grabbing at his knee a bit last night, so it would not shock me if Minnesota decides to exercise some caution and hold him out tonight.
Obviously, if Edwards rests, this prop becomes an incredible value, but even if he does suit up, I still love this line.
Dosunmu has been instrumental to this Timberwolves roster since the moment they acquired him. During the regular season with Minnesota, he has averaged 14.2 points per game — and he produced most of those numbers while sharing the floor with ball-dominant players like Edwards and Julius Randle.
While LaMelo Ball still needs the basketball in his hands to operate, he is a much more willing passer who doesn't bog down the overall offensive flow, which creates natural scoring opportunities for guys like Ayo.
Dosunmu has logged at least 23 minutes in every single game this season, and I expect him to get plenty of burn in this matchup against Cleveland.
With or without Ant on the floor, the volume and minutes are there, so I'll back Ayo to score over 11.5 points.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Over 12.5 Points (-114)Â
Mavericks vs. Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points (-125)
I am backing Giannis Antetokounmpo to score 30 or more points tonight against the Mavericks, which directly correlates with the idea of Miami bouncing back in this spot.
The standard prop line is sitting at 30.5, but you can grab him to score 30+ points at a very reasonable -125 right now on the market, and I fully expect that price to soar to -150 or -155 by the time this game tips off.
I strongly considered taking the Heat on the spread because this is the exact type of spot where they are supposed to finally get things right. You simply cannot let the avalanche continue if you are Miami; they desperately need to snap out of this funk before it spirals completely out of control.
Giannis is going to be the primary engine driving that urgency. He dropped 35 points in their first game, followed that up with 36 points in the second game, and then only had 14 points against Charlotte solely because he was plagued by early foul trouble.
This is not the defensively stout Dallas Mavericks team we saw a couple of years ago. Giannis is going to be able to drive into the paint easily, collapse this defense, and score at will.
While I have a lot of structural issues with how Miami is currently playing—specifically forcing an artificially high pace just for the sake of pace, which is actively hurting their defense—that up-and-down tempo is going to provide a surplus of total points and possessions.
Dallas plays significantly faster when their roster is depleted. If Davion Mitchell is primarily tasked with guarding Kyrie Irving on the perimeter, Giannis is going to dominate an undersized Mavericks frontcourt that is missing Dereck Lively and relying on a slow-footed Daniel Gafford.
Giannis should be able get to the basket at will and generate a ton of free-throw opportunities here. I'll take him to score 30+ points tonight.
