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Welcome to Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide Playbook. For each game, we've built a solid base parlay to get us started, followed by a spicier, compounding angle using alternate lines for a deeper long-shot payout.
Tonight, I am looking at a pair of early-season rematches with the Hawks taking on the Rockets and the Grizzlies visiting the Jazz. Let's get into my NBA parlay picks and SGP predictions for Monday, October 26.
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NBA Parlay Picks for Hawks vs. Rockets
The Angle: Hawks Look to Salvage Season Split in Houston
Jalen Johnson Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Despite being limited to 88 games in his first two years as a starter, Jalen Johnson recorded 39 double-doubles. Last season, he played a career-high 72 games and earned All-NBA honors, averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. The Hawks forward is off to another fast start to the season.
In his first three games, Johnson is averaging a triple-double with 21.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists as the Hawks are off to a 2-1 start.
Johnson has recorded 40 PRA in two of his first three games. That includes 51 on Saturday night, as he went for 26 points, nine rebounds, and 16 assists against the Rockets. He already has the 4th-most games with 20 points and 15 assists by a forward in NBA history, behind LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Larry Bird. Pretty good company, to say the least.
While Johnson likely won't have 16 assists again, he could pick up the slack with his shooting. He is still averaging 20 points despite making just two of his first 14 3-point attempts. Johnson won't be confused for Kevin Durant as a shooter, but as a career 33% shooter from behind the arc, he should regress toward that number soon.
Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Johnson may be struggling with his jumper, but that's not the case with Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Through his first three games, NAW has already knocked down 11 threes. He hasn't been bashful about shooting them, with 27 3-point attempts so far, and has a 40.7% clip.
Alexander-Walker has made two triples in each of his first three games and cleared this line in two of them. On Saturday, he cleared it in the first quarter and finished 4-for-12 from deep.
Since his time in Minnesota, NAW has knocked down three triples in four of his last six games against Houston, including four twice. With his long-range volume right, three to four 3-pointers will be on the table again tonight.
Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Aaron Wiggins Over 11.5 Points
After winning a championship and making another run to the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder knew it would have to shake up its roster with looming tax and apron concerns. The obvious move was to cut from shooting guard, as they had guard depth, and they traded Aaron Wiggins to Atlanta. However, Wiggins always took advantage of his limited minutes in Oklahoma City, and he's proving it wasn't a fluke in Atlanta.
Wiggins is still coming off the bench with the Hawks, but his minutes have been more consistent, averaging 27.3 per game. With that playing time, he averages 17 points per game and comfortably clears this line. He has scored 16 points in each of his first three games.
As in Oklahoma City, Wiggins finds himself in a crowded guard rotation, with the Hawks having NAW, CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, longtime teammate Lu Dort, and Johnson operating as a point forward. However, Wiggins has still carved out an 18.7% usage rate while attempting 10.3 shots per game.
Additionally, including Saturday's game, he has now scored 17 and 16 points in his last two games against the Rockets. Atlanta will need at least 15 points from him tonight as it looks to salvage a split in the season series.
Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over 11.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+442)
- Jalen Johnson Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
- Aaron Wiggins Over 11.5 Points
Compounding Angle (+1634)
- Jalen Johnson 40+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker 4+ Three Pointers Made
- Aaron Wiggins 15+ Points
NBA Parlay Picks for Grizzlies vs Jazz
The Angle: Jerome Stays Hot in Round 2 of Boozer vs. JJJ
Ty Jerome 25+ Points
Luka Doncic and Devin Booker are averaging 30 points while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyrese Maxey, and Anthony Edwards are all averaging 25 points per game. Yet, none of them are leading the league in scoring through the season's first week. That title belongs to Ty Jerome, who is up to 34.7 points per game.
His hot start began against the Jazz when he dropped 45 points on Opening Night. He has scored 28 points in each of his first three games and 30 in two of them. As a result, his points line has shot up to 26.5 points tonight.
Now, Jerome has to be difficult for the oddsmakers to price, as he has only averaged 9.7 points per game for his career, largely in a bench role. Perhaps we should have seen this coming to a degree. The 29-year-old averaged 19.7 points per game in 15 games of an injury-plagued first season with the Grizzlies.
He once again gets the Jazz, who have allowed 119 points in each of their first three games. They offer a tremendous matchup for Jerome to stay hot given his usage and volume. He has a 34.4% usage rate, with 21.3 field-goal attempts per game and 56/43/88 shooting splits. If he stays hot tonight, he could get 25-30 points.
Pick: Ty Jerome 25+ Points
Jaren Jackson Jr. 20+ Points
Despite being in Memphis last season, Jerome played only one game with Jaren Jackson Jr. The long-time former Grizzly averaged 22 points per game in two of his final three seasons with the team, as well as in three games with Utah last season. His first matchup against his former team didn't go well; he scored just 15 points in 28 minutes.
Foul trouble was an issue once again as he fouled out in Memphis. Despite committing nine fouls in his last two games, JJJ has scored 24 and 20 points. He is shooting 51/42/78 and is attempting 13 field goals per game.
Jackson has scored 20 points in six of his last seven games dating back to last season. In the lone miss, he still went 6-for-10 against his former team. If he can limit the foul trouble tonight, he should get 20 points again, and we get a nice price at +150.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. 20+ Points
Cameron Boozer 25+ Points and Rebounds
The Grizzlies drafted Jaren Jackson Jr. fourth overall in 2018, and good lottery luck helped them land his long-term replacement. After moving up from seventh to third in the lottery, Memphis took Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick in June. Boozer likely has some added motivation going into tonight's game.
The Jazz passed on him to select Darryn Peterson with the second pick despite his dad being a former Jazz star and currently working for the team. The Grizzlies won 123-103 despite Boozer struggling and shooting 2-for-15 from the field. This time, he will play his first game in Utah, where he spent much of his childhood.
Since the season opener, Boozer has had 25 points and 13 rebounds, and 16 points and 11 rebounds in his last two games. He is shooting 28.6% from the field this season, but the volume is there with 16 attempts per game. He has rebounded at an elite level, pulling down 11 or more in each of his first three games.
Despite his shooting struggles, Boozer has averaged 16 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. He cleared his PR line in his last two games, and even a 14-point, 11-rebound game would help him get there again.
Pick: Cameron Boozer 25+ Points and Rebounds
