The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA predictions and picks for Monday, October 26.
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NBA Predictions for Monday, October 26
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers
By Joe Dellera
Ayo Dosunmu Over 11.5 Points
The betting market is currently pricing the props for this game as if there is absolutely no chance that Anthony Edwards sits out, but I think that is a glaring oversight.
Ant is officially listed on the injury report as questionable, and the Timberwolves are entering a grueling situational spot, playing their third game in four days while on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Edwards was noticeably grabbing at his knee a bit last night, so it would not shock me if Minnesota decides to exercise some caution and hold him out tonight.
Obviously, if Edwards rests, this prop becomes an incredible value, but even if he does suit up, I still love this line.
Dosunmu has been instrumental to this Timberwolves roster since the moment they acquired him. During the regular season with Minnesota, he has averaged 14.2 points per game — and he produced most of those numbers while sharing the floor with ball-dominant players like Edwards and Julius Randle.
While LaMelo Ball still needs the basketball in his hands to operate, he is a much more willing passer who doesn't bog down the overall offensive flow, which creates natural scoring opportunities for guys like Ayo.
Dosunmu has logged at least 23 minutes in every single game this season, and I expect him to get plenty of burn in this matchup against Cleveland.
With or without Ant on the floor, the volume and minutes are there, so I'll back Ayo to score over 11.5 points.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Over 11.5 Points (-125)
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Wizards vs. Hornets
Wizards +2.5
One of the things I am trying to do early on this season is pay close attention to the specific patterns in the betting market between the opening line and the closing number. Identifying where a team consistently takes action is one of the most valuable trends you can follow.
I have actually been quite surprised that Charlotte has been getting faded and steamed against so consistently. There was a wave of Brooklyn action against Charlotte, and then a wave of Miami action against them before any actual Charlotte resistance showed up in the market.
On the exact inverse, the Wizards have been taking sharp action. They took early action when they played the Bucks, and they were the clear late sharp side when they played the Bulls.
When I notice those two opposing patterns, I fully expect the Wizards to continue to take market action because people are clearly backing them early this season, while simultaneously fading Charlotte.
So, I will gladly grab the Wizards +2.5. There are -115 lines out there for the spread, and plus-money +110 lines on the moneyline. I ran the conversion, and those are essentially equal in expected value. However, in this specific situation, I will always choose to take the +2.5 at -115 because I am getting those crucial insurance points.
This is a full lifestyle policy for me; if I can pay a fair price for insurance, I am going to do it every single time. It saves me the appropriate amount of money and protects me in a close game.
Now, I am slightly concerned because I feel strongly about the Hornets' coaching staff and quite weak about the Wizards' coaching situation, which matters a lot before these teams find their flow.
Charlotte is off to a great start integrating new pieces like Grayson Allen and Naz Reid, who look amazing. But the market patterns dictate that sharp money is going to continue backing the Wizards here, so you are going to secure closing line value, which is the right play over the long haul.
Pick: Wizards +2.5
Over 228.5
We saw this number get bumped all the way up to 230.5 before getting hit back down to 228.5, so I think we are going to float in that specific range until tip-off with market-leading books hovering around 229.5.
I don't necessarily expect to capture massive closing line value here, but this is entirely about trusting the specific tactical matchup and the expected shot diets.
Charlotte shoots a ton of three-pointers, while the Wizards are currently playing far too much in the mid-range. My expectation is that Washington will naturally begin to space out a little more and correct their shot diet to feature fewer long two-pointers and more high-efficiency dunks and threes.
When you look at the personnel on the floor, you have Anthony Davis and Alex Sarr for Washington going up against Naz Reid and Moussa Diabate for Charlotte. That means three of the four primary big men in this basketball game are going to spend a vast majority of their time roaming around on the perimeter and outside of the paint.
Because of that floor spacing, I inherently trust both of these offenses to find efficient looks.
While the Hornets' defense has been surprisingly impressive early on, I trust the breakneck pace that Trae Young is going to run for Washington. His elite playmaking, combined with quick shooting and finding open spot-up shooters, should be able to break down Charlotte's defensive shell enough to generate points.
I believe this is going to devolve into a heavy three-point shooting contest, and the overall possessions between these two teams will drastically increase relative to what we have seen against their previous opponents. I'll take the Over.
Pick: Over 228.5
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Mavericks vs. Heat
By Matt Moore
Heat -8.5
This seems like an obvious bounce-back spot for Miami. This line popped at 7.5 in a few places earlier in the day, but DraftKings is currently listing it at 8.5.
While it is always frustrating to lose a point of value off the opener, the fact that it moved in our direction actually makes me more confident in the play because it confirms the sharp market agrees with my read.
My power ratings actually make this game Miami -9.5, so getting anything under that threshold is good enough to get me involved.
Let's be honest: the Heat currently have a ton of problems.
My entire overarching thesis during the preseason was that we simply didn't know if they were actually going to be good at everything, which naturally made the Miami fanbase pissy. They got very mad at the idea that they weren't immediately going to be the top offense and defense in the entire NBA based on one half of preseason basketball.
It turns out that preseason might not be the best indicator of actual regular-season success.
Right now, Miami looks slow, they look old, and their collective body language is terrible. Bam Adebayo has infuriated the fanbase with his lackluster play to open the year, and Andrew Wiggins is playing like a ghost haunting the sidelines.
It has been a terrible start for Miami. However, this Mavericks team is severely depleted. They are missing Cooper Flagg, and quite frankly, they look awful right now.
You simply cannot get me into a spot where I fade Miami here. This is the exact type of desperate, backs-against-the-wall situation where the Heat traditionally respond.
There were plenty of valid opportunities to fade Miami over the weekend, but against a compromised Dallas roster, this is the spot to back them. I expect the Heat to win this game by double digits.
Pick: Heat -8.5
Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 Assists
By Joe Dellera
I'm backing Davion Mitchell to go over 6.5 assists tonight against the Mavericks, and I also love sprinkling a little bit on him to record a double-double at +550 on FanDuel.
Mitchell has been a fantastic facilitator so far, having already secured a double-double in two of his first three games this season while racking up assist totals of 11, 5, and 10 dimes. That lone five-assist outlier came against a Pistons squad that has been nails defensively, so I am not holding that slight dip against him.
Now, he gets a much softer matchup against Dallas, and the situational spot here is important for his floor time.
Miami is still desperately seeking that elusive first victory of the new campaign. Because of that early-season urgency, Erik Spoelstra is going to leave his primary guys out on the floor for as long as he needs to tonight to finally secure a win.
We simply don't have to worry about Mitchell's minutes being artificially capped or the rotation getting cute.
When you dive into the underlying metrics, the volume is undeniably there; Davion is currently averaging 8.7 dimes on a healthy 14.3 potential assists per game.
While it is fair to point out that his assist conversion rate is running a little high right now, I am completely fine trusting it because he happens to have an elite finisher in Giannis Antetokounmpo rolling to the rim and cleaning up those looks.
I am firing a full unit on the over 6.5 assists and putting a 0.15-unit sprinkle on the double-double.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 Assists
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Hawks vs. Rockets
Over 229.5
I am looking at the over 229.5 in this matchup between the Hawks and Rockets, which is a bit of a scheduling quirk since these two teams actually just played each other the other night.
While I generally respect Houston's defense—and it should certainly be noted that they get the distinct advantage of playing this game on their home floor—I am banking on the breakneck pace that Atlanta is likely going to force upon them this game.
I simply cannot see a scenario where this turns into a low-scoring, grinding affair unless we just witness some inexplicably poor, outlier shooting from both sides.
The Rockets are actually off to a really fantastic start this year, which is a great sign considering the lingering chemistry questions that plagued them toward the end of last season.
Even though Houston isn't trying to play at a lightning-fast pace on their own, they are executing beautifully on the offensive end, currently shooting a highly efficient 48 percent from the field, which ranks inside the top 10 in the NBA.
Atlanta currently sits middle of the road in overall pace metrics, but I believe they will make a concerted effort to speed Houston up tonight. The Hawks know that if they allow this game to slow down into a methodical half-court battle, Houston's defense is going to benefit.
The math points to a shootout here. I think we are going to see a ton of points in this matchup.
Pick: Over 229.5 (-115)
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Warriors vs. Nuggets
Warriors +8
I'm targeting the Warriors plus the points against the Nuggets tonight, though I am trying to be patient with the specific number. I am already seeing some 7.5s move to 8 across the market, and I am waiting to see if any 8.5s pop up before I officially jump in.
Getting the market directionality correct is very important, so I will likely wait until right before close, but even if it dips back to 7.5, I will be taking Golden State.
Honestly, this play is less about me vehemently backing the winless Warriors and far more about my overarching view on Denver.
I am extremely low on the Nuggets compared to the market consensus this season. If you are tracking risers and fallers, Denver is a huge potential faller in my power ratings versus where oddsmakers currently have them priced.
We have talked a lot about betting patterns, and Denver's pattern is glaring: they were steamed heavily against versus Oklahoma City, the Pelicans took sharp action against them, Utah took action against them, and the Pacers took action against them.
The sharp market has consistently faded Denver. Meanwhile, the Warriors might be winless, but they basically took the second night of a back-to-back completely off, resting Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Brandin Podziemski.
Golden State is walking into this matchup fully loaded with extra rest against an overrated opponent.
Denver's defense currently looks discombobulated and disorganized, which is a disastrous recipe when trying to defend Golden State's chaotic, constant-movement offense.
I like the Warriors +8 tonight, and I will also be sprinkling a little bit on the Golden State moneyline given how vulnerable Denver has looked.
Pick: Warriors +8 (-118)
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