We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA picks and expert bets for Monday, October 26.
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NBA Expert Bets for Monday, October 26
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wizards vs. Hornets Spread Pick
Hornets -2.5
At its core, my handicap here essentially boils down to a simple math problem. When you look at the Wizards' offensive shot profile right now, they are relying far too heavily on a steady diet of mid-range jumpers.
I have them projecting as an average team specifically because they are actively failing to exploit the mathematical edges required to consistently win in the modern NBA.
While the Wizards' offense looks totally fine on paper—boasting a 112 offensive rating through their first three games—that number is inflated by a matchup against the Bucks, who look like they are going to be historically easy to score on this year.
On the flip side, Charlotte currently holds a miserable 101 offensive rating, but we know that number is going to positively regress.
The Hornets will get their offense clicking eventually because their underlying process is just fundamentally sound. They are launching a ton of three-pointers on one end, and they are actively denying three-point attempts on the other.
Meanwhile, the Wizards simply refuse to shoot from beyond the arc. When you are presented with a foundational mathematical edge of this magnitude, the smartest move is to back the team with the distinct coaching advantage.
The Hornets are unquestionably the better-coached unit right now. When you pair superior coaching with a tactical advantage in shot selection, I fully expect Charlotte to take care of business, especially playing on their home floor.
I've been higher on Charlotte against my own will throughout the preseason, and I just can't seem to get away from them. My personal power ratings make this line Hornets -3.1, meaning we are extracting a crucial half-point of value at -2.5.
If the market steams this number to a full 3, I'm out, but at 2.5, I will gladly lay the small chalk.
Pick: Hornets -2.5
Click here for our full Wizards vs Hornets betting preview!
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Mavericks vs. Heat Spread & Total Bets
Heat -8.5
This looks like the ultimate get-right spot for the Heat. We saw this line briefly pop at 7.5 in a few spots earlier today before DraftKings settled it at 8.5.
While it's undeniably frustrating to lose a point of closing line value off the opener, the fact that the line is moving in our direction actually gives me a lot more confidence because it shows the sharp market agrees with my read.
My personal power ratings make this game Miami -9.5, so as long as we are getting anything under that specific threshold, I am going to be involved.
Let's not sugarcoat it: the Heat are dealing with a multitude of problems right now.
My overarching thesis throughout the preseason was that we really didn't know if Miami was actually going to be elite at everything, a take that naturally made their fanbase irate. They got mad at the mere suggestion that Miami wouldn't immediately possess the NBA's number one offense and defense based on just one half of preseason action.
However, as it turns out, preseason basketball isn't always the greatest indicator of regular-season reality.
Right now, this Heat team looks slow, old, and their collective body language on the floor is just terrible. Bam Adebayo has infuriated the Miami faithful with his uninspiring play out of the gates, and Andrew Wiggins is basically a ghost floating around the perimeter.
It's been an undeniably terrible start for Miami. All of that being said, this Mavericks roster is severely depleted. They are missing Cooper Flagg, and to be quite frank, they look awful right now.
You just can't convince me to fade Miami in this specific situation. This is the exact type of desperate, backs-against-the-wall environment where Erik Spoelstra's teams traditionally respond.
There were plenty of valid spots to fade Miami over the weekend, but going up against a compromised Dallas squad, this is the time to buy back in. I expect the Heat to pull away and win this game by double digits.
Pick: Heat -8.5
Over 239.5
This is a pretty straightforward handicap. Sometimes you just have to trust what you're seeing on the floor rather than digging into a million advanced metrics, and the baseline reality is that the Heat's defense is in a world of trouble.
Based on what I've seen in the early going, Miami is actively choosing to push a league-high pace while relying on a switch-everything defensive scheme in the pick-and-roll.
The fundamental flaw with that specific philosophy is that you simply cannot switch every action while running a track meet if your primary rotation is old. They just don't have the sustained physical energy to pull that off for a full 48 minutes.
We saw the 2015 Warriors pull off being number one in pace and defensive rating simultaneously, but doing that is incredibly difficult, and those guys were 24 and 25 years old at the time.
This current Miami iteration relies on aging veterans like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Klay Thompson. They are physically incapable of switching everything while operating as the fastest team in the league.
Bam is always going to have bouts of defensive inconsistency because that is just his nature at this stage of his career.
On the flip side, the Mavericks have been playing at a roughly league-average pace, but the absence of Cooper Flagg is a massive blow to their overall defensive ceiling and wing versatility. With Kyrie Irving serving as the primary initiator, Dallas is forced to play smaller lineups.
When you combine a compromised Mavericks defense with a Heat squad that insists on forcing an up-and-down tempo they are simply too old to effectively defend, you get a recipe for a shootout.
My numbers have this total sitting at 240 based on where the Mavericks are currently at. The market was sitting at 237.5 when I locked this in, so getting anything under that 240 threshold offers solid value.
Pick: Over 239.5
Click here for our full Mavericks vs. Heat betting preview!
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