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Finding value in the NBA totals market is all about identifying pace, defensive coverages, and regression spots. I've looked at the numbers for tonight's slate and narrowed it down to my favorite over/under spots on the board.
Let's get into my NBA total predictions and over/under picks for Monday, October 26.
NBA Total Predictions for Monday, October 26
- Suns vs Thunder Over 220.5 (-122, FanDuel)
- Pacers Team Total Over 121.5 (-106, FanDuel)
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Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
OKC's slew of early-season injuries makes a low score seem unlikely in this pairing.
The Thunder are giving up a league-low 96.3 points per game, but Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Chet Holmgren have already been ruled out for Monday's Thunder-Suns matchup. Phoenix gets most of its points from wings, so Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks have ideal offensive outlooks.
The Suns rebounded from their miserable season opener by posting 131 points against the shorthanded Golden State Warriors in their second outing of the campaign. Now they'll get a chance to double down against another banged-up squad.
While both of these teams have bottom-five scoring offenses in 2026-27, the Suns have a clear path to more open looks without Wallace pestering ball handlers with his quick hands and Holmgren swatting shots. OKC will be forced to lean on some of its more offensive-minded talents. Ajay Mitchell averaged 14.9 points per game in 16.0 starts last season; Jared McCain is a viable spark plug when given more shots, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains one of the NBA's most effortless scorers.
Phoenix visited the Paycom Center three times last year. Every game totaled at least 227 points. Don't expect a different outcome this time around.
Pick: Suns vs Thunder Over 220.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Indiana Pacers Pick
The league's worst scoring defense is in for a challenge.
The Milwaukee Bucks are giving up a league-high 129.0 points per game. Generating stops clearly isn't a priority. Milwaukee is averaging 119.0 points per game. That's a top-10 figure in the 2026-27 season. However, Indiana has been more impressive with Tyrese Haliburton running the show.
The Pacers rank fifth in points per game with 121.3 and are fresh off a 136-point bounce-back performance against the Brooklyn Nets. The numbers show that they've excelled at creating quality looks. Only the Los Angeles Lakers can top their team field goal percentage (51.3), while only the Atlanta Hawks and Portland Trail Blazers are dishing out more dimes (30.0) per game.
The Bucks' lack of foul discipline has led to a league-high 29.3 made free throws per game. Haliburton will likely exploit that weakness and have a field day with his playmaking, setting up Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam. It's unlikely that Milwaukee will suddenly evolve to limit either one of the league's most efficient pick-and-roll finishers or its most persistent slashers.
Indiana has the tools to score plenty of points and remain one of this year's best offensive units.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Over 121.5 (-106, FanDuel)
