Moore: Will Chris Paul Dish out More Than 8.5 Assists in Miami?

Don't tell anyone what I'm about to say — it's been talked about in basketball nerd circles, and Rockets fans are painfully aware. We're just trying to keep it under the radar with due respect for a legend.

But … Chris Paul has been really bad this season.

Let's start at the team level. Last season, the Rockets outscored opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor. This season? That's down to 1.6. Paul is still in the black, but barely.

Then there's the shooting. Paul is shooting a career-low 41.6% from the field, the second-worst mark of his career from 2-point range (46.4%) and the fourth-worst mark of his career from 3-point range (35.8%). He's even missing free throws (80.9%).

This is a guy who has consistently flirted with the 50-40-90 club having bad performances relative to his career in all three shooting areas.

But wait, there's more! He's also currently averaging his third-worst assists per game average at 8.2. Granted, that's up from last season, and an indicator of sharing the floor with James Harden.

That's what makes Paul's assists prop for Thursday's game against the Heat so interesting. Our FantasyLabs player props tool gives the under on 8.5 assists a bet quality of 8 (out of 10), projecting only 7.1 assists.

Do we have X's and O's reasons to buy in on that?

The 8.5 over/under is slightly above his season average and just below his December average of 8.8. It's when you factor in the matchup that it gets interesting.

For starters, the Heat have allowed only 21.1 assists per 100 possessions this season, one of the lowest rates in the league. They have long arms and young defenders who play up on the ball.

Through an even more narrow lens, the Heat are good at defending the specific mechanisms that Paul uses to create assists. Paul averages 1.9 assists per game to Clint Capela, obviously on the pick and roll. Miami, however, is the No. 1 team in the league at defending against the roll man.

Bam Adebayo's athleticism helps a lot, and Hassan Whiteside still gives good effort, even if his attention to detail can land him in the doghouse.

Here's the Heat defending the Ricky Rubio-Rudy Gobert connection. Their ability to get up and challenge on the lob is vital against what Capela brings to the table:

Miami is middle of the pack of the pack guarding spot-ups, however, which could be problematic.

The Heat are 19th in defending catch-and-shoot opportunities. They give up the 15th-most attempts and the 10th-worst shooting percentage on them. That seems like it would be killer against Houston — except that's kind of a myth.

Like last season, Houston doesn't actually shoot well on those attempts. They have the fourth-fewest catch-and-shoot possessions per game, and the third-worst effective field goal percentage on them.

Where the Rockets feast is on jumpers off the dribble and cuts. But the Heat are ninth in defending jump shots off the dribble — those possessions have a higher chance of not being attributed as assists — and allow the 12th-fewest cut opportunities in the league.

The ways that Paul gets his assists are essentially the ways Miami is best geared to defend. The Heat can cover the lob, help down in pick and roll as well as recover on shooters.

Paul will get his assists, but there's strong reason to believe our prop tool and take the under.

All data courtesy of Synergy Sports, NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.