Moore: Will Chris Paul Dish out More Than 8.5 Assists in Miami?

Moore: Will Chris Paul Dish out More Than 8.5 Assists in Miami? article feature image

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Paul

  • Chris Paul's assist prop for Thursday's Rockets-Heat matchup has been set just above his season average.
  • Which side of the 8.5 over/under has value? Matt Moore breaks it down.

Don’t tell anyone what I’m about to say — it’s been talked about in basketball nerd circles, and Rockets fans are painfully aware. We’re just trying to keep it under the radar with due respect for a legend.

But … Chris Paul has been really bad this season.

Let’s start at the team level. Last season, the Rockets outscored opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor. This season? That’s down to 1.6. Paul is still in the black, but barely.

Then there’s the shooting. Paul is shooting a career-low 41.6% from the field, the second-worst mark of his career from 2-point range (46.4%) and the fourth-worst mark of his career from 3-point range (35.8%). He’s even missing free throws (80.9%).

This is a guy who has consistently flirted with the 50-40-90 club having bad performances relative to his career in all three shooting areas.

But wait, there’s more! He’s also currently averaging his third-worst assists per game average at 8.2. Granted, that’s up from last season, and an indicator of sharing the floor with James Harden.

That’s what makes Paul’s assists prop for Thursday’s game against the Heat so interesting. Our FantasyLabs player props tool gives the under on 8.5 assists a bet quality of 8 (out of 10), projecting only 7.1 assists.

Do we have X’s and O’s reasons to buy in on that?

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories