The Dallas Mavericks (2-3) and Detroit Pistons (3-2) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Mexico City Arena in Azcapotzalco, Mexico City. The game will broadcast live on Peacock.
The Pistons are 8-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Pistons -8), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Detroit is a -300 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +240 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, November 1.
My Mavericks vs Pistons Prediction
- Mavericks vs Pistons pick: Jalen Duren Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
My Pistons vs Mavericks best bet is on Jalen Duren over 24.5 points + rebounds, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Mavericks vs Pistons Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -115 | 227.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -105 | 227.5 -115o / -105u | -300 |
Mavericks vs Pistons NBA Preview
The Mavericks are 2-3 after an uninspiring win over an immensely short-handed Pacers team and have had an uneasy time navigating the first five games.
They are fifth in defense, which is tremendous to start — living up to their projection as a feisty team on that end this year — but they're dead last in offense and a bottom-six team in both three-point and field goal percentage.
The Mavs have also only covered in two of their five games.
Detroit has more to be encouraged about based on past performance.
The 3-2 Pistons have responded well to losses, countering a four-point loss in Chicago to open the year with a four-point win in Houston, followed by a six-point victory against the Celtics in their home opener.
The Cavaliers rocked them by 21 on the second end of a back-to-back, and after a day's rest, they destroyed the Orlando Magic's formerly vaunted defense, 135-116.
Now, on two nights' rest for the first time this season, the Pistons will get a chance to see the Mavs in Mexico.
Detroit is just 22nd in offense with room to grow, but 10th in defense to start, which is encouraging for their blossoming personnel.
They're also among the most relentless teams on the glass, pulling down 47.6 rebounds per 100 possessions for fourth in the league.
Dallas, at 47.5, allows the third most boards per 100 possessions.
Starting guard Jaden Ivey (knee) is out for Detroit, while backup guard Marcus Sasser is questionable (hip).
Dallas is now without Anthony Davis (shocking!) for at least two games (calf strain), which is the key injury piece for the Mavs report. They're otherwise without Dereck Lively (knee), Dante Exum (knee), and still Kyrie Irving (knee).
D'Angelo Russell (knee) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) are both questionable.
Mavericks vs Pistons Prediction, Betting Analysis
With Davis and Lively out, plus Gafford questionable, you have to look at Jalen Duren here.
As up and down as Duren is, and as frustrating as he can be. I'm playing him Over 24.5 points + rebounds and praying he stays out of foul trouble. If he does, he should eat.
Dallas' frontcourt will be thin, and when active, Duren is averaging about 31 points and 21 rebounds per 100 possessions — he just needs to stay on the floor. (He has committed, on average, 7.1 fouls per 100 possessions.)
Another encouraging sign: Duren's been more aggressive offensively, averaging career-highs in field goal attempts (17.5) and free throw attempts (12.9) per 100 possessions — the latter is more than double his previous best tally, which was at 5.7.
This could be a steal if he stays out of foul trouble; the problem is he's only done it twice in five games.
In those two games, he logged 28 and 33 minutes, where he went for 42 and 34 PR. When logging just 20, 12 and 21 minutes in the three other games, his PR dropped to 21, 12 and 15.
Cross your fingers.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-115, bet365)
Pistons vs Mavericks Betting Trends
