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If you want to make money betting long shots in the NBA futures market, you usually have to move past the standard full-season title odds and start hunting derivative markets: awards, alternate win totals, exact division finishes, and seeding bets are where the true pricing disconnects live.
Books naturally struggle to accurately price variance for young, ascending rosters and clunky, volatile veteran teams. By isolating specific individual ceilings and targeting structural team regressions, we can build a long-shot portfolio loaded with genuine expected value before opening night.
Let's get into our NBA long shot futures picks and predictions for this season.
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NBA Long Shot Futures Picks & Predictions
Celtics vs 76ers Eastern Conference Finals (+1400)
By Matt Moore
I am actively rooting against the Knicks in almost every conceivable market, and my long-shot play reflects exactly that. I am taking the Celtics to play the 76ers in the Eastern Conference Finals at 14-1.
I expect the Celtics to be a regular-season juggernaut and cruise to roughly 55 wins. Meanwhile, I am holding an under ticket on the 76ers' regular-season win total.
Philadelphia will likely struggle a bit in the regular season as they manage Joel Embiid's workload and integrate Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. However, they are the exact archetype of a veteran roster that figures out their identity right as the playoffs begin.
Nick Nurse is a proven championship-level head coach who knows how to optimize talent in a seven-game series. The Sixers possess plenty of depth, versatile size, and the front-office flexibility to make a crucial deadline upgrade if needed.
I am not nearly as terrified of their center depth behind Embiid as others are, largely because I am high on Adem Bona's defensive impact.
At 14-1, getting the two most talented rosters in the East to meet in the Conference Finals is great value.
Pick: Celtics vs. 76ers Eastern Conference Finals (+1400)
Austin Reaves Clutch Player of the Year (+7000)
By Joe Dellera
With LeBron James no longer in Los Angeles, the end-of-game offense for the Lakers is going to look radically different. I am grabbing Austin Reaves to win Clutch Player of the Year at 70-1.
Without LeBron dominating the ball in the final five minutes, the Lakers' clutch offense is going to devolve into a two-headed attack primarily featuring Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
While Luka will undoubtedly control the majority of the possessions, Reaves is still an absolute bucket who isn't afraid to keep the ball in his own hands during high-pressure moments.
Reaves consistently gets to the free-throw line, which is the most reliable way to rack up raw points in clutch situations.
Historically, this award simply goes to the player who accumulates the highest raw scoring total in the clutch.
The Lakers are going to be a good team, but their defensive flaws will likely lead to a large amount of tight, down-to-the-wire games.
Reaves should see a huge spike in high-leverage scoring opportunities, making 70-1 an excellent value play.
Pick: Austin Reaves Clutch Player of the Year (+7000)
Amen Thompson Most Improved Player (+7000)
By Jim Turvey
Amen Thompson has the highest individual ceiling of any young player on the board. I am playing him to win Most Improved Player at 70-1.
Thompson already made significant statistical improvements last year, but it was nowhere close to his actual ceiling. He is arguably the most purely athletic player in the NBA right now, which is the exact archetype that historically scoops up this award.
Thompson already produces elite rebounding and assist numbers for his position. While Fred VanVleet's return might slightly suppress Thompson's raw assist totals, playing alongside VanVleet and Marcus Smart is going to generate much easier scoring opportunities.
The most critical factor here is the addition of shooting coach Chip Engelland. If Thompson displays even a marginal progression in his perimeter shooting, his scoring average should easily jump into the 24 points per game range.
If Amen pushes those scoring numbers and secures his first All-Star nod, a 70-1 ticket on a buzzy young player is going to look like highway robbery by February.
Pick: Amen Thompson Most Improved Player (+7000)
Brandon Miller to Make All-NBA (+2500)
I am taking a swing on Brandon Miller to make an All-NBA team at +2500. Even when the Hornets had LaMelo Ball, I still believed that Miller was the best overall player on this Charlotte roster.
I am more skittish on the Hornets this season than I was last year—especially with injuries already popping up before opening night—but this play is strictly about Miller's individual ceiling.
With LaMelo out of the picture, Miller is freed from the shackles of a chaotic offensive system. People forget how heavily Charlotte had to manage Ball's minutes; he was capped at 28 minutes a game and limited the team's offensive structure.
Now, head coach Charles Lee finally gets to implement the structured basketball he actually wants to run.
This might be a scenario where Charlotte takes one step back in the standings to take two steps forward as a franchise, but Miller's volume is going to be undeniable.
If he stays healthy, Miller will almost certainly land squarely in the All-Star conversation — and if the Hornets remain remotely competitive, his raw production should give him a legitimate dark-horse case for an All-NBA spot.
Pick: Brandon Miller to Make All-NBA (+2500)
Franz Wagner First-Team All-Defense (+10000)
Franz Wagner to make First-Team All-Defense at 100-1 seems wildly mispriced.
For the first time, Wagner did not play Euro basketball over the summer, allowing him to focus all of his energy on getting healthy and gelling with his Magic teammates.
Wagner has gone out of his way to develop a better on-court relationship with Paolo Banchero, and with Sean Sweeney orchestrating the defense, I expect Orlando to take big strides on that end of the floor.
Wagner is quietly the best on-ball defender on this entire roster, and yes, that includes Jalen Suggs—who is currently listed at 15-1 for this exact same award.
In the past, the Magic relied on Wagner to guard the opposing team's best offensive wing. This season, I fully expect them to deploy him directly onto the opposing team's primary ball-handler.
We saw a glimpse of this in the preseason when he guarded James Harden, holding him to 0-of-2 shooting.
Wagner is an absolute menace defensively who simply doesn't get the national media credit he deserves.
When you look at the landscape of First-Team All-Defense candidates, there are four top tier candidates. That leaves the fifth spot wide open for a high-impact, versatile wing defender on a top-tier defensive team.
Pick: Franz Wagner First-Team All-Defense (+10000)
Cleveland Cavaliers 1-Seed in the East (+1000)
The Cavaliers are perfectly constructed to dominate the regular season. I am taking them to secure the number one overall seed in the Eastern Conference at 10-1.
The primary differentiator for Cleveland is their elite rotational depth across the board. They feature two elite on-ball creators in the backcourt and two elite rim protectors in the frontcourt, providing them with a strong buffer against the inevitable injury bug.
Look at the teams projected ahead of them: the 76ers are carrying monumental injury risks with their veteran core, the Celtics are navigating their own health concerns, and the Knicks compromised their center depth the moment they lost Mitchell Robinson. The Pistons are talented but likely won't be able to sustain another No. 1 seed push.
Analytically speaking, the Cavaliers profile as the best regular-season team in the conference.
Coming off a disappointing end to last season, Cleveland enters this year with a huge chip on their shoulder and the necessary roster depth required to grind out a run at the top seed.
Pick: Cavaliers 1-Seed in the East (+1000)
Other NBA Futures Articles
- Moore's 10 Win Total Over/Under Picks
- Our Staff's NBA Finals Picks
- MVP Picks
- NBA Division Winner Picks
- Season-Long Player Prop Futures
- Our 6 Picks to Make/Miss the Playoffs
- Sixth Man of the Year Picks
- Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Rookie of the Year Picks
- Coach of the Year Picks
- Most Improved Player Picks
