NBA Odds, Preview, Prediction for Grizzlies vs. Jazz Game 5: How to Bet Memphis Elimination Game (Wednesday, June 2)
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies.
- The Utah Jazz host the Memphis Grizzlies in a potential series clinching Game 5 Wednesday night.
- Memphis has played Utah well in this series, but without any covers to show for over the past three games.
- Kenny Ducey explains why those trends have him targeting the total.
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Game 5 Odds
|Moneyline||+350 / -450|
|Time||9:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM.|
The Memphis Grizzlies will travel to Utah to face the Jazz in a must-win elimination Game 5.
Despite a great effort in the first four games of this series, the Grizzlies haven’t covered since Game 1 and seem to get crushed by the Jazz right as they get into the proceedings.
Is there a way to back the Grizzles without the risk of a potential 10-0 run in the fourth by the Jazz which helps them pull away? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Grizzlies Have Been Solid Despite Current Predicament
You wouldn’t know it by just looking at the scores in this series, but the Grizzlies have played the Jazz incredibly well. Memphis hasn’t covered since the first game of this series, when it beat a Jazz team without Donovan Mitchell, and after losing by 12 in Utah failed to cover in back-to-back games as 5.5-point underdogs.
Now, heading back on the road in this series and facing elimination, oddsmakers are respecting this Grizzlies team a bit more with a spread in the single digits.
Memphis got to the playoffs on the back of its incredible play on defense, but so far against one of the league’s most efficient offenses, defending has been tough. Since Mitchell returned in Game 2, the Grizzlies have allowed 127.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranks second-to-last over all teams’ last three games this postseason.
On the bright side, the Grizzlies have actually won the rebounding battle in those games, grabbing 50.7% of available boards, and have held their own on offense with more than 118 points per 100 possessions.
It’s certainly possible the Grizzlies could give the Jazz one last scare, particularly if they keep going small. Grayson Allen has featured in Memphis’ small-ball lineup and has seen increased run over the past two games. It’s at least part of the reason why the over keeps hitting. It’s cashed in all four games this series and currently sits at 225.5 points.
Resilient Jazz Continue Finding Answers
Every time the Grizzlies have hit the Jazz with a big run, Utah has punched back. Its offense has been spectacular when it’s needed to be, though last game was a bit of a regression from the numbers this team posted in Game 2 and Game 3.
The fact that Mitchell shot 8-22 from the field in Game 4, while Jordan Clarkson shot 8-for-18 and Joe Ingles hit one out of four shots in a win should give you the utmost confidence in the Jazz. They had almost nothing on the offensive end, yet their buckets were timely. Royce O’Neal and Bojan Bogdanovic stepped up and hit crowd-silencing threes, and Mike Conley gave Utah a small but mighty 11 points.
The Jazz come at you with a complete team attack, and the strength of their defense against a so-so offense has been the deciding factor here. The upward mobility for this team should scare Memphis; at a moment’s notice Mitchell and Clarkson could begin to hit their shots again, and that would spell the end.
Given how strong the Jazz have been all series (and season) long on offense, I don’t see this slump lasting more than one game. It’s always a good idea to fade a team off a hot shooting night, and it’s just as good an idea to bet on regression to the mean.
The one constant in this series has been the over hitting, and I expect it to hit once again with the Grizzlies fighting for their playoff lives. Memphis pushed the pace to 101 in a big Game 4, and I expect it to continue playing frantically as it tries to get a grip on this game early.
Considering how impressive the Jazz have been on offense, they should carry us most of the way to this over, but Memphis’ modest success on offense should help out as well.
I expect them to go small for the majority of the second half, which should help us get the tempo up in this one, and should make life a little easier for Memphis since Jonas Valanciunas hasn’t been able to be the scoring machine he’s been at times this year thanks to the defense of Rudy Gobert.
Pick: Total Over 226.5