NBA Odds & Picks (March 6): Finding Betting Value in the Heat vs. Pelicans Over/Under

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Photo credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson

  • The updated betting odds of Friday's matchup between the Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) make Zion Williamson & Co. 1.5-point favorites at home with the over/under set at 232.5.
  • The Pelicans love to play at a fast pace (fourth in the NBA) while the Heat prefer to slow things down. How will that affect tonight's high total?
  • We preview the matchup below, including betting picks on tonight's early primetime game.

Both the New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat have been an over bettor’s dream, especially of late. Should you keep riding the over? What do sharp bettors have to say about this total?

Let’s break it down below.

NBA Odds & Picks


Odds as of Friday morning and via BetMGM. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans

  • Spread: Pelicans -1.5
  • Over/Under: 233
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

The Heat square off with the Pelicans in a battle that features two elite offenses. Over the last 15 games (since Zion Williamson’s debut), the Pelicans have the sixth-best Offensive Rating at 114.4; the Heat are third at 115.8.

Unsurprisingly, these teams have been two of the most profitable squads to the over:

  • The Heat’s over is 8-2 during its past 10 games; the Pelicans’ over is 7-3.
  • The Heat’s over has hit 62.3% of the time this season; the Pelicans’ over has hit in 58.1% of games.
  • The Heat’s over is 17-13-1 on the road, while the Pelicans’ over is 17-13-1 at home.

Two top-notch offenses that absolutely crush overs. We’re taking the over, right? Absolutely not.

Historically, it has been profitable to fade good over teams when they play late in the season.

And if you want more than a trend, let’s look at sharp money. So far, per Sports Insights, there have been two steam moves on the under at 235.5 and 234.5, with no buyback on the over.

The numbers don’t lie. I’m trusting the data here and fading the public’s love of the over. I’m over the over.

THE PICK: Under 233

[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

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