If the NBA season ended today, this would be your 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference playoffs. The Jazz are just one game up on the Thunder, so this game will be quite important for seeding and home-court advantage.
Will the Thunder hold serve at home? What's the value of Rudy Gobert, who is questionable tonight, to the spread and total? Let's break it down.
Jazz at Thunder Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Thunder -3
- Over/Under: 218.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA League Pass
Odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Betting Trends to Know
The Thunder are a league-best 40-24 against the spread (ATS), although most of that value has come on the road and as a dog. At home and as a favorite — as they are tonight — they're 17-16 ATS and 15-14 ATS, respectively.
The Jazz are just 2-7-1 ATS over their past 10 games, although they're 8-5 overall this season as an underdog. They're +1.16 units as moneyline underdogs.
Sharp Report
So far today, it seems the sharp sides are the Thunder and over. We've now tracked three steam moves on the Thunder — at -2 twice and then again at -3 later in the afternoon — and just one on the Jazz at +3.5.
Note that Gobert was listed as questionable at 12:06 p.m. ET, so the steam moves on the Thunder at -2 and the over at 217 correspond directly with that news. The subsequent ones this afternoon are likely due to bettors buying and selling around that 3 number.
How I'm Handicapping This Game
Again, the Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the betting market this season, going an impressive 40-24 ATS. And they’re hot right now, winning eight of their last 10 games straight-up.
They just got a really nice road win over the Celtics on Sunday, and now they’ve had three days to rest up for a home affair against the Jazz, who have been solid of late overall but have gone just 2-7-1 ATS over their past 10 in the betting market. They’ve been a bit overvalued of late.
The Jazz have gone 8-5 ATS as underdogs this season, but things could be quite different today with Gobert questionable with an illness.
His data paints a very clear picture: He’s the most important player on this team. With him on the floor vs. off, the Jazz have been a whopping 11.0 points per 100 possessions better; that’s one of the strongest marks in the league. A good chunk of that is on defense, of course, and that’s the side of the ball I’m most worried about with him off.
The Jazz have slid back defensively this year, which makes sense given the personnel they’ve lost. In particular, Derrick Favors is with the Pelicans, and while the difference between the Jazz this season vs. last overstates his individual importance, the fact that the Jazz played two bigs most of the time really helped the defense.
If Gobert is unable to go, this game changes in a big way. That’s especially true against a Thunder team that ranks in the top-seven in field goal percentage at the rim this season. They’ve actually done most of their damage in the mid-range with Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari, and if Gobert is missing, they’ll use their craft to get even more efficient looks.
This line suggests the teams are about even on a neutral floor, and while that’s more true with Gobert, it’s definitely not without him. Make sure to watch his status, and if he’s ruled out, jump on this line quickly.
Given that he didn’t participate in shootaround, I don’t mind grabbing a little even before his status is announced. There’s definitely upside here.
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Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
