NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday: Bets Bets for Knicks vs. Hawks, Pelicans vs. Kings From Our Experts
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: De’Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings, Lonzo Ball #2 of the New Orleans Pelicans.
- Looking for NBA betting picks on Wednesday's slate? You've come to the right place.
- Our experts, Brandon Anderson, John Ewing and Rob Perez, have broken down their favorite bets tonight, each offering analysis to go alongside their picks.
- Check out what they're betting below, as they've hit both Knicks vs. Hawks and Pelicans vs. Kings.
There are six games on Wednesday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting on over/unders in these specific matchups:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
- 10:30 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings
Brandon Anderson: Knicks at Hawks
- Spread: Hawks -5
- Over/Under: 231.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
It’s the battle of the secondary Duke rookies, as R.J. Barrett’s Knicks take on Cam Reddish’s Hawks in a game pitting 20-win teams against each other in March!
Barrett and Reddish had rough starts to the season, but both have been better lately, and so have the Knicks and Hawks. New York has been more bad than tragic under coach Mike Miller, and the Hawks are scoring a lot of points now that John Collins is cooking.
Hawks games tend to be pretty high scoring: at least one team has scored 118 points in eight straight Hawks games, and those games have averaged a total of more than 240 points. That’s about where I would’ve expected this line to come out, but it opened at under 230 before being quickly bet up as Ewing noted. Knicks games haven’t been as reliable for points, and many of their lines lately are in the 220 range, so this line is something of a compromise.
I’m banking on the lack of defense and the youth of these teams to win out, with plenty of points to go around. The Hawks over is 38-27-1 on the season, which comes as no surprise if you’ve watched this team. The Knicks have gone under more often than not, but most of that damage is at the Garden and may have as much to do with the opponent enjoying a night in New York as anything else. On the road, the Knicks over is 17-14-1 on the season. I’m on the over tonight too. Let the points roll in!
The PICK: Over 231 (has since gone up to 231.5)
John Ewing: Knicks at Hawks
The Knicks-Hawks total opened 229 and was quickly bet up to 232.5. Sharp money is responsible for the line movement.
At the time of writing, 79% of tickets are on the over, which accounts for 98% of dollars wagered on the total. When there is a larger percentage of dollars than tickets this is an indication of professional action.
Historically, it has been profitable to follow the line movement in this situation.
Since 2015, when we began tracking dollar percentages, over bettors following this system have gone 344-276-7 (56%), returning 50.2 units of profit.
Pros don’t always win but being on the same side as the smart money is a profitable long term strategy.
The sharps are on the Knicks-Hawks over, you should be too!
The PICK: Over 232.5
Rob Perez: Pelicans at Kings
- Spread: Pelicans -1.5
- Over/Under: 233
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
If you’re familiar with this column, this should come as no surprise to any of you. Every week, there is a game involving the New Orleans Pelicans that has me asking: how is this total not in the 240s? And almost every single time, they get to the number with ease.
Tonight is a unique situation, the opening line of 235 has been bet down to 232. Everyone on earth, from casual NBA fans to experts, believes this game is going under. I don’t blame them, the Kings’ turnaround has been lead by their defense. During a recent 4-1 stretch, the team only gave up more than 103 points once. That is an eye-popping statistic in today’s NBA in which even the Westchester Knicks can score 110. But that has since come and gone.
Some numbers to note: 126, 125, 111, 118. Those are the point totals the Kings have conceded in their past four games, and only two of those teams (Wizards/Blazers) have any interest in pace and space.
There has been a significant market correction here, and with the Pelicans in town, a team whose pace will make you laugh out loud while watching, there is not a single reason I can explain this line movement. It’s a systematic explanation, not so much on a player level. Alvin Gentry would run his golden retrievers 115 possessions per game if he could. This game will look exactly like the contest last week against the Wizards where we addressed the same questions.
Will it have a playoff feel with the No. 8 seed on the line? Yes, but so has every game for both teams and we’ve seen how those went. Simply too many possessions will be had to not bet the over in the 230s. This gets to the 240s, once again, and it does so with ease.
The PICK: Over 232 (has since gone up to 233)
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