The Miami Heat (0-4) and Atlanta Hawks (2-2) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Hawks are 3.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread, with the over/under set at 240.5 total points. The Hawks are -148 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Heat are listed as +126 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, October 28.
Heat vs Hawks Prediction
- Heat vs Hawks pick: Under 240.5 (-105)
My Heat vs. Hawks best bet is the total to stay under 240.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Heat vs Hawks Odds
- Heat vs Hawks spread: Heat +3.5 (-110), Hawks -3.5 (-110)
- Heat vs Hawks over/under: 240.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Heat vs Hawks moneyline: Heat +126, Hawks -148
Heat vs Hawks NBA Preview
Miami Heat Betting Preview
There is a huge misconception in the betting market right now regarding the Miami Heat. It feels like they are playing at a breakneck pace, but they are actually just 12th in the league in pace.
More importantly, the Heat are hilariously bad on the offensive end, currently ranking fourth-worst in offensive rating.
Their shooters are completely out of rhythm and unable to find any level of comfort. While fans are debating whether the offense or defense is the bigger issue, the defense is actually starting to gel and head in the right direction.
Offensively, however, Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo still do not know how to play together. Despite running in transition more than any other team in the league, Miami is dead last in transition points per possession.
Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview
The Atlanta Hawks have been legitimately good and very fast to start the year. They are currently tied for seventh in pace and rank seventh in overall offensive rating.
However, under the hood, the Hawks still possess a core roster that is fully capable of playing good defense when they lock in.
Atlanta's guards and bigs are going to force Miami into the half-court, and Miami simply does not have the offensive cohesion to exploit them.
Heat vs Hawks Pick, Betting Analysis
The market steamed this total up from an open of 239.5, and it is simply far too high. My numbers project this game around 232, giving us a nice edge on Under 240.5.
At their core, both of these teams have solid defensive personnel. Miami's defense looked much better against Dallas and is trending the right way, while their offense remains completely broken.
With Miami's size on the interior, there won't be many second-chance points for Atlanta, and with the Heat operating as the least efficient transition team in basketball, this game is likely going to grind to a halt in the half-court.
Pick: Under 240.5 (-105)
Heat vs Hawks Betting Trends
