Monday NBA Player Prop Bets: Kyle Kuzma, James Harden, Trae Young Highlight Our 3 Picks
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks.
After going 4-2 on our weekend props, it is time to see what we can do tonight on this 10-game NBA slate. I provided a few bonus props as well in a game that I thought had a ton of potential in the prop market.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Enjoy your Monday and let’s win some money!
NBA Player Prop Bets
Kyle Kuzma, Over 17.5 Points (-115)
|Wizards vs. Hornets||Wizards -2|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Washington Wizards host the Charlotte Hornets in what will be one of the most entertaining games of the night. The total is a slate-high 231.5 points. The Wizards are only 2-point home favorites with an implied total of 116.75 points.
Kyle Kuzma has turned the corner recently and has been much more assertive for the Wizards. In his last three games, Kuzma is scoring 25.3 points per game while averaging 18 field goal attempts. He is shooting 57.4% from the field. Kuzma has really increased his aggressiveness, too — drives per game are up from 6.6 to 14.3 during that time.
This matchup for Kuzma and the Wizards is as good as it gets in the NBA. The Hornets rank 28th in Defensive Rating and first in Pace this season. They have allowed a league-high 116.5 points per game and allow their opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field. Kuzma should have his way against the Hornets.
As of 1:45 p.m. ET, the best line is at BetMGM at 17.5. FanDuel had 18.5 and plus-money on the over.
Not only do I love this prop for Kuzma, but I provided two more Wizards props below at plus-money. Playing against the Hornets is a party for everyone!
Bonus Similar Game Juice Prop Bets
- Bradley Beal, Over 9.5 Assists (+115): Coming off a career-high 17 assists in his last game. Hornets allow the second-most assists per game to opposing backcourts. Beal has averaged 13.5 assists in his last two games.
- Daniel Gafford, Over 10.5 Rebounds (+110): Averaging 9.3 rebounds per game this season without Montrezl Harrell in the lineup. Hornets rank dead last in Rebounding Percentage this season. Gafford will dominate the paint.
James Harden, Over 45.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115)
|Nets vs. Grizzlies||Nets -6.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Brooklyn Nets look to rebound after back-to-back home losses against the Clippers and 76ers. The Nets are sizable favorites against the Grizzlies, who are surprising a lot of teams this season as they are fourth in the Western Conference standings.
James Harden has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his last four games, Harden is averaging 35.5 points per game, 11 rebounds per game, and 12 assists per game. He is playing an absurd amount of minutes as well. Harden has played 40 or more minutes in eight of his last 11 games. In two of those games he didn’t reach 40 minutes, he played 39. Expect heavy minutes again.
This prop includes all of Harden’s points, rebounds, and assists which is what I am looking for. He has a triple-double in three of his last four games and he is scoring like crazy.
The Grizzlies are a middle-of-the-road defense across the board. However, where they struggle most is defending the 3-point line. They allow their opponents to shoot 37.2% from behind the arc, which is the second-highest percentage in the league.
Harden seems to have flipped the switch lately. I also don’t mind getting exposure to Harden’s assist prop at 10.5 on DraftKings because it’s plus-money. However, I still want all of the Harden stats in this matchup.
Trae Young, Over 9.5 Assists (-125)
|Trail Blazers vs. Hawks||Hawks -5.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Another dropping dimes prop? Let’s do it! The Hawks look to win their second consecutive road game for the second time all season as they travel to face the Trail Blazers tonight. The Hawks are favored by 5.5 points in a great spot.
The Trail Blazers are playing without CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard. They have lost four in a row and 11 of their last 13 games as their record has plummeted to 13-22 this season. They rank last in Defensive Rating and have given up 112.7 points per game. The Trail Blazers also allow their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field which ranks last in the league as well.
With defense being optional for the Trail Blazers, Trae Young should be able to slice and dice them all night long. Young ranks third behind Chris Paul and James Harden in assists with 9.4 per game. Young has had double digit assists in back-to-back games and in 10 of his last 14 games.
Over the last three games, the Trail Blazers have allowed an average of 64 points per game in the paint which is the worst in the league during that time. Young has mastered the lob in the paint to Clint Capela and John Collins. I would consider taking this prop if the line got pushed up to 10.5 assists as well. This is a great matchup for Young and the Hawks tonight.
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