We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Sunday, November 15.
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NBA Predictions for Sunday, November 15
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Lakers vs. Suns
Austin Reaves is out for the Lakers, but it shouldn’t matter much. This is a mismatch.
The Suns have played better lately, winning four of their last five. But this is too short a line with Luka Doncic expected to play. This has already moved from 2.5 at open to 3.5, showing the sharp side is LA. I make this 3.9 based on power rating.
The Suns take a ton of midrange shots — too many, if we’re being honest — and the Lakers are actually good at defending there. LA’s weakness is on the perimeter; they give up the third-most shots from 3 in the league. But Phoenix is third-lowest in three-point rate and 23rd in efficiency. They just can’t attack this Lakers team the way LA is vulnerable.
On the other end, Doncic is just an onslaught; the Suns use Oso Ighodaro at center, with second-year man Khaman Maluach also at the position. Neither is prepared for the physicality of Walker Kessler off the roll with Doncic conducting.
I project this at 228, and I disagree with the steam down. Phoenix might take more threes than I expect, which would make this easy, but LA might just put up a huge number on its own.
Pick: Lakers -3.5
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Rockets vs. Wizards
This might be a rock fight. The Rockets take the third-fewest threes in the league, the Wizards allow the 7th-fewest, and the lowest percentage on them (though that’s mostly luck). The total is 223.5. The Rockets and Jazz total was 221.5, and Utah covered.
The interior matchup is pretty good with Alex Sarr and Anthony Davis against Alperen Sengun (who’s having an awesome season so far). The Wizards do allow a lot of offensive rebounds, which is unfortunate vs. the Rockets, but they actually defend second-chance attempts well (11th via Synergy Sports).
The real cap on this is that Fred VanVleet is sitting out for injury maintenance. The Rockets are seven points better per 100 possessions with FVV on the floor. You beat the Wizards with jumpshots, and FVV is one of their two best jumpshooters, and the replacement value is low.
I have FVV worth about a point to the spread. I like the spot on an extended road trip for the Rockets, who faced the Jazz way out West on Friday and now are on the East Coast for a 6:00 p.m. CT tip (their time zone).
Spot, spread, injury, matchup. Houston’s awesome, but I think the play is the Wizards.
Pick: Wizards +8.5
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
I might be walking into a trap here, but I can’t figure this line out at all.
Cooper Flagg is not on the injury report. Kyrie Irving is questionable, along with Santi Aldama, and Max Christie is doubtful.
Those are good players. But the difference between Irving on and off is slight (+1.5 net rating with him, -1.7 off, per DataBallR.com). He matters, but he's not a player that should move this line that much.
The weird part is that the market line on this game, based on previous spreads, is Celtics -9.3. So Irving, Aldama, and Christie, along with Sergio DeLarrea out, compounded by a 3-in-4 back-to-back for Dallas, forces a five-point move off the market rating?
Boston’s awesome; they look like the best team in the league. But that’s also probably a pretty good reason to fade them in what looks like an easy spot. This is so many points against a team that is, at its core, a good team in Dallas.
The Mavericks are well coached with a good roster, and Flagg is playing. Walter Clayton Jr., who has been good for Dallas, is also playing. Daniel Gafford is probable.
If the Celtics are -14.5 against this Mavericks team, what does that make them against the Kings or Pelicans, -21? No way. I’ll take the 'dog.
Pick: Mavericks +14.5
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Hawks vs. Bucks
OK, follow along.
The Hawks’ opponent team total is 7-0 when they lose. That sounds inherent; they lost, so they allowed more points than expected, but 7-0 is pretty extreme. When they win, the opponent team total is 4-3 to the under, with an outlier: +22 to the Wizards the other night in an overtime game.
The Hawks’ team total and combined total are also 6-4 to the under when the Hawks are favorites.
The pattern is that when Atlanta can control the game defensively, they win and don’t put the heat on offensively.
They’re going to win this game.
I happen to think this spread is too wide; I make this game Bucks +7.7, but after I skated through on a Bucks bet Friday with some last-second hijinks, I have no interest in testing my luck. But the Hawks are going to win this game.
I project this game at 230 based on last year’s figures, and shockingly closer to 227 based on in-season numbers. Atlanta is the second-fastest team in the league, but the Bucks’ transition defense is only 13th-worst (look, it’s the Bucks; we’re looking for upsides here).
Here’s the actual edge: the Hawks generate most of their offense from spot-up possessions. They use pick-and-roll and handoffs to create leverage and kick. Defending spot-ups is, weirdly, the one thing the Bucks are good at, top ten defensively. They get torched in pick-and-roll scoring, but Atlanta generates the fourth-fewest shots from pick-and-roll.
The matchup isn’t bad for Milwaukee defensively, comparatively speaking. However, I’m not trusting the Bucks’ offense here to hang inside the number. The trends and matchup, along with my projections, support the under.
Pick: Under 233.5
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Pacers vs. 76ers
A caveat here: the injury report for this game is a mess. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the Pacers, who have Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith listed as questionable.
Sixers backup Ariel Hukporti, who suffered a torn Achilles, is out. Joel Embiid is also listed as out for this game with injury maintenance on his foot. So is Adem Bona, and Philadelphia does not have a center. It’s Tacko Fall. That’s it. They have no other centers available on the roster.
What a disaster. That said, I think there’s value on the Pacers.
Philly is the second-worst transition team in the league. Indiana really doesn’t play as much in transition as we’re used to, whether that's without Haliburton or just a different team this year. However, the Pacers are still hyper-efficient when they do, scoring at the second-highest per-possession rate. They’ll get out and run, and the Sixers will let them.
I make this game 7.1 based on my full model and only Sixers -6.1 based on in-season figures. I think Indiana hangs and might win this game outright.
Pick: Pacers +7.5
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