The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Sunday, November 15.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google and download the Action Network app for more NBA picks and analysis!
NBA Best Bets for Sunday, November 15
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pacers vs. 76ers
By Matt Moore
A caveat here: the injury report for this game is a mess. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the Pacers, who have Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith listed as questionable.
Sixers backup Ariel Hukporti, who suffered a torn Achilles, is out. Joel Embiid is also listed as out for this game with injury maintenance on his foot. So is Adem Bona, and Philadelphia does not have a center. It’s Tacko Fall. That’s it. They have no other centers available on the roster.
What a disaster. That said, I think there’s value on the Pacers.
Philly is the second-worst transition team in the league. Indiana really doesn’t play as much in transition as we’re used to, whether that's without Haliburton or just a different team this year. However, the Pacers are still hyper-efficient when they do, scoring at the second-highest per-possession rate. They’ll get out and run, and the Sixers will let them.
I make this game 7.1 based on my full model and only Sixers -6.1 based on in-season figures. I think Indiana hangs and might win this game outright.
Pick: Pacers +7.5
| | | | |
Lakers vs. Suns
By Matt Moore
Austin Reaves is out for the Lakers, but it shouldn’t matter much. This is a mismatch.
The Suns have played better lately, winning four of their last five. But this is too short a line with Luka Doncic expected to play. This has already moved from 2.5 at open to 3.5, showing the sharp side is LA. I make this 3.9 based on power rating.
The Suns take a ton of midrange shots — too many, if we’re being honest — and the Lakers are actually good at defending there. LA’s weakness is on the perimeter; they give up the third-most shots from 3 in the league. But Phoenix is third-lowest in three-point rate and 23rd in efficiency. They just can’t attack this Lakers team the way LA is vulnerable.
On the other end, Doncic is just an onslaught; the Suns use Oso Ighodaro at center, with second-year man Khaman Maluach also at the position. Neither is prepared for the physicality of Walker Kessler off the roll with Doncic conducting.
I project this at 228, and I disagree with the steam down. Phoenix might take more threes than I expect, which would make this easy, but LA might just put up a huge number on its own.
Pick: Lakers -3.5
| | | | |
Spurs vs. Jazz
By Action PRO Prop Projections
Our prop model identifies substantial value on Keldon Johnson to clear 9.5 points, projecting him for 12.66 — a massive 28.7% edge over the current line and best odds.
Although the Spurs forward is averaging 8.8 points per game across 13 appearances off the bench, his underlying usage and recent form point heavily toward the over. Johnson has seen an uptick in playing time this month, logging 25.6 minutes per game in November compared to 22.5 in October, which has boosted his monthly scoring average to 9.1 PPG.
He enters Sunday in sharp rhythm after erupting for 18 points on 6-of-11 shooting in Friday's blowout win over Golden State, clearing this 9.5-point threshold in three of his last four contests.
Furthermore, Johnson has already thrived in both prior meetings against Utah this season. He scored nine points on 4-of-7 shooting in Salt Lake City on October 28 before pouring in 15 points on 5-of-12 from the field against the Jazz on November 2.
Facing a leaky Utah defense yielding 118.6 points per game—and with blowout potential that could afford San Antonio’s second unit extra fourth-quarter run—Johnson is well-positioned to cruise past this number.
Pick: Keldon Johnson Over 9.5 Points
| | | | |
Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Action PRO Prop Projections
Another prop to keep an eye on today is Cooper Flagg Under 22.5 Points. We project the Mavericks forward at just 19.41 points, creating a 25% betting edge driven largely by a brutal road matchup against the 10-2 Celtics.
Boston boasts the league’s stingiest scoring defense, allowing an NBA-low 103.1 points per game alongside the third-best defensive rating (107.6). Crucially, the Celtics play at the slowest pace in the NBA (95.0, 30th of 30). Fewer total possessions naturally cap individual scoring ceilings, making it difficult for Flagg to reach 23 points without elite shooting efficiency.
Flagg’s recent game log further supports the under. While capable of explosive outbursts—such as his 43-point game against Indiana—he has stayed under 22.5 points in 6 of his 12 appearances this season, including five of his last seven outings (17, 19, 21, 12, and 18 points).
Additionally, Dallas is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after logging 38 minutes in Cleveland last night, where Flagg shot just 6-of-19 from the field and 0-of-6 from deep. Against Boston’s disciplined perimeter defense and glacial tempo, fading Flagg’s scoring total is a sharp play.
Pick: Cooper Flagg Under 22.5 Points
| | | | |
Rockets vs. Wizards
By Bet Labs
Early-season NBA totals frequently fall victim to inflated public expectations, making Sunday’s Rockets–Wizards matchup an ideal fit for our "Line vs. Public Unders, Road Warriors" system.
With the total opening at 223.5 and dropping to 222.5, sharp money is actively fading public recency bias—specifically Washington’s 144-140 double-overtime thriller against Detroit and Houston’s 125-118 win over Utah.
Digging beneath those recent outliers, the underlying metrics strongly favor the under.
Houston dictates games with a disciplined, methodical style, ranking 27th in pace (96.5) while boasting a top-five scoring defense (107.4 PPG allowed) and a top-eight defensive rating (111.2).
Aside from their recent overtime anomaly, Washington owns the league's 25th-ranked offense (110.0 PPG) and has seen nine of its first 13 games stay under the total.
Both offenses face key absences. Houston is without starting point guard Fred VanVleet (14.0 PPG, 5.4 APG) and backup center Clint Capela, while Washington could be missing multiple rotation pieces, including questionable starters Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, and Bub Carrington.
As a heavy 8.5-point road favorite, Houston’s slow tempo, elite defense, and depleted backcourt create a prime spot to back the sharp downward line movement on Under 222.5.
Pick: Under 222.5
| | | | |
