We have another excellent slate on tap in the NBA today, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, October 28.
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NBA Player Props for Wednesday, October 28
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Wizards vs Cavaliers Player Prop: Alex Sarr Points
By Matt Moore
The Cavs are phenomenal at defending the rim, but their individual coverage relies a lot on at-level play blitzing ball handlers, which Trae Young exploits with both lobs and pocket passes.
Alex Sarr will be in position both on those assists from Young and as the trigger man in the dunker spot if the ball goes to Anthony Davis or DeAndre Ayton on the short roll.
Pick: Alex Sarr Over 10.5 Points
Heat vs Hawks Player Prop: Aaron Wiggins 3-Pointers
By Matt Moore
Aaron Wiggins has gone over this prop in his last four games and Miami allows a sky-high corner-3 defensive rate despite playing drop coverage.
He generates 1.8 corner 3-point attempts per game this season, shooting a scorching 57% on them.
Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 3PM
76ers vs Pacers Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3-Pointers
By Matt Moore
The foundational logic for this play centers around the pace factor and Indiana's exploitable defensive scheme.
With Ivica Zubac currently sidelined, the Pacers' defense is naturally going to overcorrect and aggressively help down in the paint to try and protect the rim. That interior collapse directly leads to Indiana ranking in the top 10 for corner 3-pointers allowed this season.
If you follow my betting strategies, you know I love targeting 3-point props against teams that over-help. Caldwell-Pope operates precisely in those zones as Philadelphia's primary corner shooter.
He is currently averaging two makes per game from the corners alone, making a baseline of just 1.5 total 3s incredibly appealing. The volume has been consistent for him as well; he hoisted up six attempts against the Cavs and followed that up with another four attempts against the Pistons.
Caldwell-Pope should get plenty of clean looks from his favorite spots on the floor. Grab the plus-money value.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3PM
Warriors vs Timberwolves Player Prop: Rudy Gobert Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Timberwolves are navigating this game without Anthony Edwards, which naturally opens up a bit more opportunity and minutes across the board for the rest of the rotation.
The Warriors are a great matchup for Rudy Gobert because they simply do not roster a real, traditional center who can physically challenge him on the glass. While Golden State's rookie big man Yaxel Lendeborg has looked promising on the offensive end, he is exploitable defensively and on the boards.
Traditional centers have already had a field day rebounding against the Warriors this season: Zach Edey pulled down 10 boards, Walker Kessler grabbed nine rebounds on 17 chances, and Nikola Jokic secured seven boards on 19 chances.
Gobert is arguably the best center in the league at converting his raw rebound chances into actual secured rebounds. He has cleared this 11.5 mark in three of his first four games and is currently averaging 14.3 rebounds per game.
When you look at his track record against Golden State last season in games where he played at least 25 minutes, he secured 14, 17, and 9 rebounds. The underlying metrics in those games were even more impressive, as he generated 27, 24, and 21 rebound chances.
Even in the game where he only finished with nine boards, he had 21 chances, which simply indicates bad luck rather than a lack of opportunity.
Gobert won't get played off the floor in this specific matchup, and his volume of chances should carry him over this number.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds
Knicks vs Bulls Player Prop: Matas Buzelis 3-Pointers
By Matt Moore
The Knicks allow corner 3-pointers consistently as part of their defensive coverage and Matas Buzelis has gone over in each of his last two games.
He’ll keep shooting them, so the volume is there. I want to bet on Caleb Wilson, but the kid can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Pick: Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 3PM
