We have an excellent NBA slate on tap today — and our NBA betting expert Prop Bomb has locked in his top player prop bet for tonight's matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers.
Let's dive into our NBA prop bet for Darius Garland in Lakers vs. Clippers on Wednesday, October 28.
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NBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, October 28
The Clippers basically lit their roster on fire over the last year, and what’s left tonight is Darius Garland, Keaton Wagler & a bunch of guys who were supposed to be the fourth and fifth options.
Kawhi Leonard is in Toronto, James Harden is gone, and Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, and Rui Hachimura are all sitting. So yeah, Garland is going to have the ball a lot. The books know it too. I just don’t think more usage turns into more points against this Lakers defense.
He already had this exact matchup last week, and for three quarters it was rough. He had 13 points and eight turnovers going into the fourth. The Lakers ran 15 ball screens at him and didn’t trap him once. They didn’t need to.
Ziaire Williams stayed in front of him, the help sat in the passing lanes, and Garland kept settling for pull-ups. Court Lab graded his shot quality the worst on the team that night, a 37.9% expected FG%, and he still beat it by about nine and a half points.
He drove 10 times and didn’t get one shot at the rim. Five fouls drawn, two trips to the line. His 26-point outing only happened because the Clippers were down double digits the whole fourth and LA started switching.
Most people will look at Hachimura sitting and say more shots for Garland. I see it the other way. Rui was the one guy the Lakers had to respect on the weak side, and without him there’s no reason not to shade help toward Garland every time he puts it on the floor. And LA has bodies to throw at him.
Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, and Quentin Grimes are all bigger than him and all comfortable picking up a guard 30 feet out. That’s a long night for a 6'1" pull-up guard who’s already turned it over nine and six times in his last two. Give him normal shot-making and I have him around 22 or 23. But it won't be easy.
