The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA predictions and picks for Wednesday, October 28.
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NBA Predictions for Wednesday, October 28
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Heat vs. Hawks
Under 240.5
By Matt Moore
This line opened at 239.5 and was steamed up to 241, giving us a fantastic number to fade. My personal projections have this total sitting all the way down around 232.
There is a massive misnomer in the betting market right now regarding how the Heat are actually operating. Because their games feel chaotic, people assume they are playing at a breakneck pace, but Miami actually ranks just 12th in the league in pace.
More importantly, the Heat have been hilariously bad on the offensive end of the floor, currently ranking fourth-worst in offensive rating. Their shooters are completely out of rhythm, and they cannot find any level of comfort in the half-court.
While the Hawks have been very fast and efficient—tying for seventh in pace and ranking seventh in offensive rating—the overall game environment points toward a grind.
At their core, both of these teams feature strong defensive personnel. Miami's defense looked noticeably better against Dallas and is starting to gel, while their offense remains disjointed because Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo still don't know how to play alongside one another.
With Miami boasting elite interior size, the Hawks are not going to generate many second-chance points on the offensive glass — and while the Heat attempt to run in transition more than any other team in the league, they are dead last in transition points per possession.
The offensive floor in the NBA is very low right now as defenses are tightening up. I'll take Under 240.5 points.
Pick: Under 240.5 (-110)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 17.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has cleared this number in two of his first four games this season, posting point totals of 31, 14, 18, and 12.
This specific matchup against Miami is a great spot for him to thrive because the Heat are getting absolutely crushed defensively right now. They are consistently allowing a high volume of looks from beyond the arc, specifically bleeding attempts from the corners and above the break.
That defensive scheme plays perfectly into Alexander-Walker's hands, as he currently takes over 50 percent of his shot attempts from above the break.
With Andrew Wiggins listed as questionable for Miami, there is potential for even more offensive action to flow his way.
The Heat are dealing with a multitude of problems right now—they can't find a consistent offensive rhythm, players are calling each other out, and their defensive rotations are a mess.
Tactically, Miami is playing a lot of drop coverage to conserve energy, which will allow NAW to rise up and fire pull-up threes.
When the Heat inevitably try to blitz with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Atlanta's pocket passers like Onyeka Okongwu will pick them apart, leaving Alexander-Walker as the primary beneficiary of those guard-guard actions.
NAW will likely draw defensive coverage from Klay Thompson, who is simply not a great perimeter defender at this stage of his career.
Alexander-Walker had great success in this exact matchup last season, scoring 15, 19, and 20 points against Miami. I'll back NAW to score over 17.5 points tonight.
Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 17.5 Points (-125)
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76ers vs. Pacers
Under 237.5
By Matt Moore
It’s true that this is a matchup of two top-10 teams in pace.
However, the Sixers run because their halfcourt offense is too confused to make it work; Philly is 26th in halfcourt points per possession.
Indiana is missing Ivica Zubac, which hurts defensively and on the glass, but their overall defense is sneaky good and a reason why in 2025, when they were actually trying to win games, the under was 16-13 in games with a total north of 235.
I think this turns into a sloppier, up-tempo defensive battle rather than a shootout.
Pick: Under 237.5 (-110)
Tyrese Maxey Over 23.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Tyrese Maxey has looked incredible to start this season, operating as the undisputed engine of the Philadelphia offense. It is rare to see a player who is arguably the fastest guy in the league also possess an elite shooting stroke, but Maxey is exactly that.
Whether the roster is fully healthy or dealing with injuries, he is not taking a backseat to anybody. Philadelphia trusts him to score the basketball, and he is getting as many shot attempts as he wants right now, logging 19, 23, 22, and 24 field goal attempts over his first four games.
Maxey has cleared this 22.5-point line in all four contests and is currently averaging a massive 28.8 points per game. He is a truly multi-faceted scorer who can beat you one-on-one, excel as a spot-up shooter off handoffs, break defenders down off the dribble, and crush opponents in transition.
That transition speed is crucial here because this matchup against the Pacers is going to be a crazy fast-paced environment. Both teams are averaging well over 100 possessions per contest and rank inside the top 10 in pace.
Indiana also struggles to defend without fouling, currently allowing the sixth-most free throws per game this season.
I'll back Maxey in the scoring department tonight.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 23.5 Points (-120)
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Wizards vs. Cavaliers
Wizards +10.5
By Matt Moore
This handicap is just as much about the Cavaliers as it is about the Wizards.
The Wizards’ early-season numbers are too much affected by the loss to the Raptors with Kawhi Leonard; the Raptors are several levels above Washington. I’m not so sure the Cavs are, at least not by much.
The matchup here is tough. The Cavs are dominant defensively around the rim and the Wizards don’t shoot many threes. It’s possible we lose the cover based on simple math.
But, the Wizards overall shot defensive efficiency is better and they allow fewer attempts at the rim and at a lower percentage.
Anthony Davis is a good matchup vs. Evan Mobley, Alex Sarr is a good counter to Jarrett Allen. The same can be said vice versa.
But the Cavaliers’ preferred defensive scheme will likely leave holes for Trae Young to find shooters if they can just knock a few down.
The Wizards’ bench has also been decent-to-good, and while I like the Cavs’ bench roster, I’m not fond of the James Harden led units.
I don’t think we know enough about either of these teams to say that one is 10.5 points better than the other.
Pick: Wizards +10.5 (-115)
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Hornets vs. Pistons
Paul Reed Under 13.5 Points
By Matt Moore
The Hornets allow the fourth-fewest second-chance points in the league. They are maniacal about winning the possession battle.
Paul Reed averages four second-chance points per game early this season, and is on a back-to-back playing longer minutes than usual with an inflated line.
Pick: Paul Reed Under 13.5 Points (-110)
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Warriors vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves -3.5
By Matt Moore
The Wolves are without Anthony Edwards after arthroscopic knee surgery, but it’s their defense I’m counting on making a difference here.
Yaxel Lendeborg is having a monster breakout so far for the Warriors and Steve Kerr is letting the brash youngster have his way with minutes and shots.
But Minnesota has some of the best interior defenders in the league and the kind of aggressive physicality to match Yaxel and pull him back down to normal rookie levels.
The absence of Ant means more minutes for Ayo Dosunmu, who will tail Stephen Curry and this is, of course, the Jonathan Kuminga revenge game.
Okay, but seriously, I think the Wolves will dominate this very small and old Warriors team and be able to cover this number with ease.
Edwards is a great player, but this line is a drastic overreaction to his absence.
Pick: Timberwolves -3.5 (-115)
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Timberwolves are navigating this game without Anthony Edwards, which naturally opens up a bit more overall opportunity and minutes across the board for the rest of the rotation.
The Warriors are an excellent matchup for Rudy Gobert because they simply do not roster a real, traditional center who can physically challenge him on the glass.
While Golden State's rookie big man Yaxel Lendeborg has looked promising on the offensive end, he is exploitable defensively and on the boards.
Traditional centers have already had a field day rebounding against the Warriors this season: Zach Edey pulled down 10 boards, Walker Kessler grabbed nine rebounds on 17 chances, and Nikola Jokic secured seven boards on 19 chances.
Gobert is arguably the best center in the league at converting his raw rebound chances into actual secured rebounds. He has cleared this 11.5 mark in three of his first four games and is currently averaging 14.3 rebounds per game.
When you look at his track record against Golden State last season in games where he played at least 25 minutes, he secured 14, 17, and 9 rebounds. The underlying metrics in those games were even more impressive, as he generated 27, 24, and 21 rebound chances.
Even in the game where he only finished with nine boards, he had 21 chances, which simply indicates bad luck rather than a lack of opportunity.
Gobert won't get played off the floor in this specific matchup, and his volume of chances should carry him over this number.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (-112)
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Knicks vs. Bulls
Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
The Knicks allow corner three-pointers consistently as part of their defensive coverage, and Matas Buzelis has gone over this line in his last two games.
He’ll keep shooting them, so the volume should be there.
I want to bet on Caleb Wilson, but the kid can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Pick: Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
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Rockets vs. Bucks
Rockets -8.5
By Matt Moore
My personal power ratings actually make this line Houston -9.2, so getting this at 8.5 presents solid value. While a sub-point edge isn't usually enough to make something a three-star play for me, the situational spot and the specific personnel matchups are simply too glaring to ignore.
The Rockets have made their money early this season by competing with and outright beating genuinely good basketball teams, having already taken down the Spurs and beaten Atlanta twice.
Now, they finally get to face a struggling squad, and I expect Houston to be the type of team that absolutely eradicates bad teams this season. Milwaukee is effectively their first real break in the schedule.
When you evaluate the physical matchups across the floor, the Rockets bring an overwhelming amount of size and athleticism that the Bucks simply cannot counter with their small rotation of wings and guards.
Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson are perfectly equipped to slow down Milwaukee's backcourt pieces like Tyler Herro and Ryan Rollins. In the frontcourt, it is a huge mismatch; you have Kyle Kuzma trying to deal with Jabari Smith Jr., which heavily favors Houston.
The Bucks are volatile and up-and-down, but even if this turns into a shootout, the Rockets have the offensive firepower to keep pace while maintaining the ability to lock in and limit them defensively. I expect the Rockets to smash the Bucks in this spot.
Pick: Rockets -8.5 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Jazz
Over 234.5
By Matt Moore
This is pretty simple: without Jaren Jackson Jr., the bottom falls out of an already bad defense.
Jackson is out several weeks with a knee injury, and the Jazz can’t get stops to begin with. They are too young and too thin in the backcourt, and too light in the frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic already out.
This will wind up being Ace Bailey and Jaxson Hayes starting. Yikes.
San Antonio is understandably annoyed at a rough start coming off the Finals run and will simply run up and down on Utah.
The speed of San Antonio’s guards will be a particular problem in the open floor for the Jazz.
De’Aaron Fox, remember him and how everyone said he sucked? Yeah he’s shooting 57 percent on the season averaging 17 per game.
This should be an easy win for the Spurs. I think they put up a big number while taking it easy on defense and allowing Utah to put up numbers in garbage time.
Pick: Over 234.5 (-105)
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Lakers vs. Clippers
While Kobe Sanders holds a modest season average of 2.3 rebounds per game, his recent involvement and consistent court time suggest this line is hovering a bit too low.
Over his first three games of the 2026-27 campaign, Sanders has carved out a reliable rotational role, logging 19, 19, and 20 minutes respectively. More importantly, his rebounding production is steadily trending in the right direction.
After failing to grab a board in his season opener, Sanders bounced back to secure three rebounds against these same Lakers on October 23, followed by a season-high four rebounds against the Thunder in his most recent outing.
Tonight's matchup presents a favorable game environment for ancillary stats. The Lakers are operating at a solid pace of 101.2 possessions per game and possess a porous defense that currently ranks 23rd in the NBA with a 118.8 Defensive Rating.
By surrendering 120.2 points per contest, the Lakers are engaging in track meets that naturally generate a surplus of long rebounds and extra possessions.
Our Action Network PRO Projections support the over here, projecting Sanders to pull down 3.87 rebounds in tonight's contest. That robust projection creates a notable 11.8% edge against the current 2.5-rebound line.
Although bettors have to lay -150 juice on this specific prop, we still see this as a high-value target for Wednesday night.
Pick: Kobe Sanders Over 2.5 Rebounds (-150)
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