We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Wednesday, October 28.
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NBA Predictions & Picks for Wednesday, October 28
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Heat vs. Hawks
Under 241.5
Projected: 234
I get why this total is so high. Both of these teams play fast. But the Heat have actually slowed down considerably, now ranked 12th in pace. Their defense was supposed to be elite, and it has been horrific to start — but they have started to show a few things as they get more comfortable.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is voracious. The Hawks' defense is stout despite being undersized and their wings will stymie the attempts by Miami to get into the paint by creating turnovers.
This game won’t be as fast as people think, or as offensively loaded. This is a great spot to back the Heat to return to form defensively, even as their transition offense (30th) struggles against a mediocre Atlanta transition defense
Pick: Under 241.5
Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Wiggins has gone over this line in all four games this season, and Miami allows a sky-high corner three defensive rate despite playing drop coverage.
Wiggins has generated 1.8 corner three-point attempts per game this season, while making a scorching 57% of them.
Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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76ers vs. Pacers
Under 237.5
Projected: 231
It’s true that this is a matchup of two top-10 teams in pace. But the Sixers run because their halfcourt offense is too confused to make it work; Philly is 26th in halfcourt points per possession.
Indiana is missing Ivica Zubac, which hurts defensively and on the glass, but their overall defense is sneaky good and a reason why in 2025, when they were actually trying to win games, the under was 16-13 in games with a total north of 235
I think this turns into a sloppier, up-tempo defensive battle rather than a shootout.
Pick: Under 237.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
I am playing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to hit over 1.5 three-pointers. The logic here centers on Indiana's pace and exploitable defensive scheme.
With Ivica Zubac currently sidelined, the Pacers' defense naturally overcorrects and helps down in the paint to try and protect the rim. That interior collapse directly leads to Indiana ranking in the top 10 for corner three-pointers allowed this season.
I love targeting three-point props against teams that over-help. Caldwell-Pope operates precisely in those zones as Philadelphia's primary corner shooter. He is averaging two makes per game from the corners alone.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Wizards vs. Cavaliers
Wizards +10.5
Projected: Wizards +6.9
This handicap is jut as much about the Cavaliers as it is about the Wizards.
The Wizards’ early-season numbers are too much affected by the loss to the Raptors with Kawhi Leonard; the Raptors are several levels above Washington. I’m not so sure the Cavs are, at least not by much.
The matchup here is tough. The Cavs are dominant defensively around the rim, and the Wizards don’t shoot many threes.
It’s possible we lose the cover based on simple math. But the Wizards overall shot defensive efficiency is better and they allow fewer attempts at the rim and at a lower percentage.
Anthony Davis is a good matchup vs. Evan Mobley, Alex Sarr is a good counter to Jarrett Allen. The same can be said vice versa. But the Cavaliers’ preferred defensive scheme will likely leave holes for Trae Young to find shooters if they can just knock a few down.
The Wizards’ bench has also been decent-to-good, and while I like the Cavs’ bench roster, I’m not fond of the James Harden led units.
I don’t think we know enough about either of these teams to say that one is 10.5 points is better than the other.
Pick: Wizards +10.5
Alex Sarr Over 10.5 Points
The Cavs are phenomenal at defending the rim, but their individual coverage relies a lot on at-level play blitzing ball handlers, which Trae Young exploits with both lobs and pocket passes.
Sarr will be in position on those assists from Young and as the trigger man in the dunker spot if the ball goes to Anthony Davis or Deandre Ayton on the short-roll.
Pick: Alex Sarr Over 10.5 Points
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Hornets vs. Pistons
Hornets +7.5
Projected: Hornets +4.5
This isn't a great spot for the Pistons after blowing a big lead to the Knicks on Tuesday, now on a back-to-back. No Jalen Duren means a shortened center rotation.
The bigger marker there is the math advantage for Charlotte. Coach Charles Lee is pretty simple and obvious with his plan: take more threes, allow fewer. Charlotte leads the league early in 3-point rate and are 7th in opponent rate, which follows exactly how they played last season.
When teams make more threes than JB Bickerstaff teams, the Bickerstaff teams are 77-141-5 (35%) via Killersports.com. With the Pistons? Not much better at 41-61-2 (40%) and 24-48 (33%) as a favorite.
Now the Hornets just have to hit them, because their shooting has been out of whack so far this season. Maybe their bad shooting luck holds, but given the absence of Jalen Duren to open up things for the Charlotte bigs, the math edge, and the rest spot, I’ll take the Hornets.
Pick: Hornets +7.5
Paul Reed Under 13.5 Points
The Hornets allow the fourth-fewest second-chance points in the league. They are maniacal about winning the possession battle.
Reed averages four second-chance points per game early this season, and is on a back-to-back playing longer minutes than usual with an inflated line.
Pick: Paul Reed Under 13.5 Points
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Warriors vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves -3.5
Projected: Wolves -7.9
The Wolves are without Anthony Edwards after arthroscopic knee surgery, but it’s their defense I’m counting on making a difference here.
Yaxel Lendeborg is having a monster breakout so far for the Warriors and Steve Kerr is letting the brash youngster have his way with minutes and shots.
But Minnesota has some of the best interior defenders in the league and the kind of aggressive physicality to match Yaxel and pull him back down to normal rookie levels.
The absence of Ant means more minutes for Ayo Dosunmu, who will tail Stephen Curry and this is, of course, the Jonathan Kuminga revenge game.
Okay, but seriously, I think the Wolves will dominate this very small and old Warriors team and be able to cover this number with ease.
Edwards is a great player, but this line is a drastic overreaction to his absence.
Pick: Timberwolves -3.5
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Knicks vs. Bulls
Bulls +7.5
Projected: Bulls +5.4
Okay, go easy here. I do think Chicago has been so bad that this is now a good spot for them, and on power ratings, I don’t think they’re as bad as they’ve looked — and it’s a terrible spot for New York coming off the comeback win over Detroit for their first win of the season.
Chicago plays at the No. 1 pace in the league. That’s not great for an older team on the road coming off a big win.
Teams are 5-8 since the start of last year after facing the Pistons and being a road favorite next game. Why does that trend matter? The Pistons play a dogged, physical style that takes it out of you. Getting on a plane, traveling, and playing again less than 48 hours later isn’t great.
Mike Brown is also 5-7 ATS as a road favorite on a back-to-back since 2023, and 23-28 (45%) ATS overall on back-to-backs.
The Bulls take a ton of threes, which can help keep them in this game, but they also have to, you know, make literally any of them.
But, the chances should be there; the Knicks are allowing 45% shooting from the arc so far this season, though that stat is mostly thought to be luck.
Pick: Bulls +7.5
Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Knicks allow corner three-pointers consistently as part of their defensive coverage, and Buzelis has gone over this line in each of his last two games.
He’ll keep shooting them, so the volume is there. I want to bet Caleb Wilson, but the kid can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Pick: Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Rockets vs. Bucks
Rockets -8.5
Projected: Rockets -9.2
My projection doesn’t show a massive edge, but I have a strong feeling that the Rockets are going to absolutely beat up on bad teams this season, and the Bucks are a bad team.
Even with their injuries, the Rockets play a physical style that wears down on teams with bad habits.
Milwaukee has some guard pop, but Houston’s suffocating defense and offensive flow is too much.
One of the big problems is that the Bucks are 23rd in opponent free throw rate and the Rockets live at the line. With Chip Engelland on board, they’re making them too,
The Bucks have done a nice job keeping teams off the glass which is a huge strength of Houston’s — but ultimately, I just think the Rockets are in a different weight class than the Bucks.
Pick: Rockets -8.5
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Nuggets vs. Pelicans
Over 240.5
Projected: 241.9
Denver’s defense is an absolute wreck and now it goes on the road against a team desperate to get a win.
The Nuggets play slow but have a high turnover margin in transition that swings back for scores.
These two teams played Saturday in Denver’s home opener, and Derik Queen had his way with all of Denver’s subpar interior defenders.
Dejounte Murray can get to the rim whenever he wants vs. the Nuggets’ pick and roll defense.
Denver’s due for some offensive regression starting with Jokic and carrying through to their shooters.
The Pels are 7th in pace and tend to go for home run outlet passes on the break.
Throw in the likelihood that Denver gets at least one shooter back from their various wing injuries, and a shootout seems likely.
Pick: Over 240.5
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Spurs vs. Jazz
Over 234.5
Projected 238.2
This is pretty simple: without Jaren Jackson Jr., the bottom falls out of an already bad defense. Jackson is out several weeks with a knee injury and the Jazz can’t get stops to begin with. They are too young and too thin in the backcourt, and too light in the frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic already out.
This will wind up being Ace Bailey and Jaxson Hayes starting. Yikes.
San Antonio is understandably annoyed at a rough start coming off the Finals run and will simply run up and down on Utah.
The speed of San Antonio’s guards will particularly be a problem in the open floor for the Jazz.
De’Aaron Fox, remember him and how everyone said he sucked? Yeah, he’s shooting 57 percent on the season averaging 17 per game.
This should be an easy win for the Spurs. I think they put up a big number while taking it easy on defense and allowing Utah to put up numbers in garbage time.
Pick: Over 234.5
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