NBA Expert Betting Picks (Monday, Feb. 10): Our Favorite Bets for Hornets vs. Pistons, Jazz vs. Mavericks

Credit:

Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Bojan Bogdanovic of the Utah Jazz.

There are nine games on Monday’s NBA schedule and our experts making their bets based on these specific matchups:

  • 7 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons 
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors 
  • 8 p.m. ET: Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks 
  • 8:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks 
  • 9 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets 
  • 10:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers 

See the bets they’re making below.


Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


John Ewing: Hornets at Pistons

  • Spread: Pistons -3.5
  • Over/Under: 205.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Pistons and Hornets have been two of the best over teams this season. Combined the over has gone 60-47 (57%) when Detroit and Charlotte have taken the court.

It is no wonder then that more than 70% of tickets are on the over in tonight’s matchup. However, the total has decreased from 208 to 206.

When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action. Historically, it has been profitable to follow such line movement.

Since 2005, gamblers following this system have gone 578-458-13 (56%) returning a profit of $9,534 for a $100 bettor.

The public loves the over, but the pros are on the under. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out which side to bet.

The PICK: Under 206 (Has since dropped to 205.5)

Wob: Jazz at Mavericks

  • Spread: Jazz -1.5
  • Over/Under: 218
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

This Utah Jazz team had all the bad vibes. Donovan Mitchell came back down to Earth, Conley couldn’t find his place, Royce O’Neale became the secondary scorer, Rudy Gobert went from Defensive Player of the Year during the winning streak to the wrong end of every highlight, and they got beat by a seven-player Denver Nuggets team on their own floor in a game that may ultimately determine the division winner.

And then Bojan Bogdanovic happened.

The league’s most important player in regards to their own team’s production (it’s true, look it up he’s still No. 1), hit the most cold-blooded game-winner of the season to steal a win in Houston while everyone was watching the Oscars.

In this house, we believe in momentum, creating your own luck and that there are no such thing as coincidences. I am not understating that this was a season-changing moment for the Jazz. They needed it.

And now that they’ve crawled through the mile-long sewage tunnel portion of the season, I have to believe they came out feeling clean. Tonight is technically a road back-to-back for them (a death trap for NBA productivity), but traveling from Houston to Dallas is nothing.

They probably got into town before you went to bed, so i’m not treating this like a true SEGABABA; I’m treating this like the Jazz are back on their winning streak and they’ve got themselves a wounded Mavericks team ripe for the taking in front of them. There’s a reason why Utah is favored in this spot — it’s because they’re going to win.

The PICK: Jazz -1.5

Brandon Anderson: Four-Team Moneyline Parlay

Every now and then I look around the slate of games and just don’t feel particularly inspired. On days like that this season, I’ve found success putting some of those big favorites in a moneyline parlay.

That’s the plan today, as I’m riding four of the best teams in the NBA at home as big favorites: Raptors, Bucks, Nuggets, and Lakers. When you put together a parlay like this, the question to ask yourself is how do I lose?

Healthy Lakers at home against the Suns? Easy.

Bucks home against the Kings? Free money, even if Giannis sits.

The Timberwolves look rejuvenated, but D’Angelo Russell probably isn’t ready yet and Toronto has won 14 in a row. The closest game might feature the short-handed Nuggets, but they are 20-6 at home, while the Spurs are 8-18 on the road, have lost four straight and seem to be fading again.

It’s the NBA, so anything can happen, but this four teamer is already +EV, and the Bucks and Raptors lines are moving slightly in our favor. If Antetokounmpo rests tonight, they’ll move even further. I believe in these teams just finding a way to win somehow more than any other straight line tonight.

The PICK: Raptors, Bucks, Nuggets, Lakers Parlay (+111)

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