NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Plays For Saturday, Including Joe Harris & Draymond Green (April 10)
It’s a bit of an ugly slate tonight, with six of seven NBA games featuring one team favored by at least nine points. But even in what could be a night of blowouts and unplayable sides, there’s always money to be made on the right player props.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joe Harris, Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+115)
|Lakers at Nets||-10.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Shooters gonna shoot, and Joe Harris is most definitely a shooter.
Harris ranks third in the NBA with 166 made 3-pointers already this season. He also ranks third in 3-point percentage at a blistering 48.4%. This is both volume and accuracy for Joe Harris, whose 67.5% True Shooting percentage ranks fourth in the NBA for a stat usually reserved for seven-footers who spend most of the game dunking at the rim.
Harris averages 3.2 makes per game beyond the arc. He’s had at least two makes in all but five of his Nets games this season, an incredible floor for a prop of 2.5. That means Harris is within one make of an over in more than 90% of his Nets appearances this year. He’s hit the over in 32 of 52 games, going over this prop 62% of the time.
So why are we getting plus money? It seems too good to be true.
Well, beware the volume. Through 44 games this season, Harris was averaging 6.9 attempts per game behind the arc. He’s down to 4.9 attempts per game in the last seven outings, with four or fewer in five of them. That feels flukish though, with three blowouts in that stretch causing a dip in minutes. And even in this down stretch, Harris is still averaging 2.3 makes per game.
Harris is too good of a shooter not to play this prop, especially with the Lakers defense not its usual self without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Besides, Harris hit six threes in February against LA. I’ll play at any plus number and down to -110 if needed and trust the volume to be there.
Joe Ingles, Under 17.5 PTS + REB (-118)
|Kings at Jazz||-12|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
This line for Joe Ingles is higher than usual because fellow sixth man Jordan Clarkson is doubtful and not expected to play tonight. Clarkson is the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year (even though I’d argue Ingles ought to be) and soaks up a heap of minutes, shots, and usage off the bench, so it’s reasonable enough to figure Ingles would have to increase his production with Clarkson sidelined.
That belief is only bolstered by Ingles’s big role last time out against Portland, Clarkson’s only other missed game all season. Ingles hoisted 13 shots without Clarkson, his second highest total of the season, and finished with 13 points, five rebounds, and six assists.
That’s a nice line, but Ingles is as good as he is because of efficiency, not volume. And it’s not like that’s a monster game by any stretch. It’s really not even much of an outlier, other than the assists being up a bit, his ninth highest total of the season.
Don’t overlook the other point guard in that Portland game. Mike Conley played but was questionable coming in and saw a reduced role, and Conley is off the injury report tonight and should get a pretty regular load. There’s also every chance that the Jazz could blow the Kings out and get into the end of the bench guys early, reducing minutes for Ingles.
Ingles averages 11.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Don’t be surprised to see him exceed that assist total tonight with more of a handling role, but don’t be afraid of a huge scoring or rebounding night. That’s why we’ll play the combo prop here but skip the assists, opting for the under 17.5 points + rebounds.
We project Ingles at 11.0 points and 3.5 rebounds, right in line with his usual production. He’s just not really built to take on Clarkson’s big shot load off the bench in his stead, so it should be just another night for the Aussie. Ingles has gone under this line in 30 of 48 games, hitting this under 63% of the time. Play to -140 as needed.
Draymond Green, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-104)
|Rockets at Warriors||-8.5|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
It took Draymond Green awhile to work himself into shape this season, but he’s been terrific since the start of February. In 28 games since the calendar flipped to February, Green is averaging 7.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists, along with 2.6 stocks per game and his typical trademark defense.
Green doesn’t score anymore, and that was never exactly his calling card, but the rest of his game remains top notch. Compare this stretch of production to that ugly January line: 4.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game. Draymond has increased his production by at least 44% on all three major stats since the start of February. It matches the eye test, too. Green is playing with more energy, and the assists in particular have popped.
Today, it’s the rebounding that we’ll play. Green is averaging only 6.4 boards per game this season — hence this line — but look at those splits. Green averaged only 4.6 RPG in January, and he went under 6.5 rebounds in 14 of those 16 games. Yikes! But since Feb. 1, Green is up to 7.5 RPG and over 6.5 boards in 17-of-28. That’s an over just 13% of the time in January but 61% of the time since.
All the better that the Rockets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. We project Draymond at 7.8 boards, so I’ll play the over to -140.