The Spurs took a 2-1 lead with a 120-108 comeback victory over the Trail Blazers in Game 3 of their first round series. They did not have Victor Wembanyama as he tries to work his way back from a concussion. He is questionable once again, but regardless, I like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper to shine once again with opposition from Scoot Henderson.
Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been one of the league's top duos for years and they were in top form last game. They led the Celtics to a 108-100 victory and a 2-1 lead over the 76ers. They will look to head back to Boston up 3-1, but Tyrese Maxey may have something to say about that.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Sunday, April 26.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Sunday
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Trail Blazers vs Spurs Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide
The Angle: Young Guards Battle in Portland
Stephon Castle 15+ Points
One of Castle's biggest strengths is his fearlessness. In that regard, it should not be too much of a surprise that he is averaging 22.7 points in the first three games of his first playoff series. The 21-year-old has scored 17 points in each of the first three games of this series even despite not shooting well in Games 1 and 2.
His breakout game came in Game 3 when he scored 33 points on 10-for-18 from the field. The Spurs needed a big performance from him without Wembanyama and his usage rate did jump to 33.7%. However, if Wembanyama does play, Castle will still be a significant factor.
Castle averaged 16.4 points in 63 games with Wembanyama this season. He scored 15 points in nine straight games with him and 74% of his games this season. Castle also has made 5-of-10 his last 3-point attempts over the last two games of this series. Portland has been leaving him open and daring him to take them and Wembanyama may actually help this with the attention he commands and give Castle and his teammates a few more looks.
Pick: Stephon Castle 15+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Castle, Henderson, and Harper's Overs
Scoot Henderson 15+ Points
Henderson has seen a noticeable bump in his scoring line since the beginning of this series, but his play has warranted it. In the first three games of this series, Henderson has scored 18, 31, and 21 points. He has now scored 15 points in four straight and six of his last 10 games against the Spurs while averaging 17 points per game.
His strong play has warranted more opportunities. After playing 27 minutes and taking 11 shots in Game 1, he has taken 17 and 18 shots in the last two games. He has played 38 and 36 minutes in the last two games Shaedon Sharpe has played 27 minutes combined.
Henderson is shooting 56.5% from the field and 52.2% from three in this series. While he is a candidate to regress, he has room to clear this line with a worse shooting performance averaging 23.3 points per game in this series. However, if he does remain hot, his ladder is in play once again.
Pick: Scoot Henderson 15+ Points
Dylan Harper Over 10.5 Points
Henderson is not one to back down from a challenge. However, he may have poked the bear a bit when he chirped at Harper after a basket. Harper went on to score 27 points after scoring six and 10 points in Games 1 and 2. In the process, Castle and Harper became the second set of teammates age-21 or younger to each score 25+ points in the same playoff game.
More than Castle, Harper may benefit more if Wembanyama is out today as he averages three more points per game and has a three percent bump in usage when he is out. However, he still has 11.4 points per game off the bench with him in the lineup, clearing this line at a 59% rate. He has scored 11 points in seven of his last 10 games with Wembanyama while averaging 12.9 points per game.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 10.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+425, FanDuel)
- Stephon Castle 15+ Points
- Scoot Henderson 15+ Points
- Dylan Harper Over 10.5 Points
Compounding Angle (+2230, FanDuel)
- Stephon Castle 15+ Points
- Stephon Castle 2+ Threes Made
- Scoot Henderson 15+ Points
- Dylan Harper Over 10.5 Points
Celtics vs 76ers Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide
The Angle: Brown & Tatum Push Sixers to Brink
Jaylen Brown 25+ Points
With the "Jays", there has long been debate about whether the two of them could co-exist and who the No. 1 option is. They put the former to rest by winning a championship, but the latter debate still goes on and likely will into next season. Brown had a long stretch as the team's undisputed No. 1 option until Tatum returned in March from a torn Achilles,
He averaged 28.9 points in 58 games without Tatum this season while having a 35.6% usage rate. However, since Tatum returned, he is still averaging 28.2 points with a 35.1% usage rate. He has scored 25 points in each of his last 10 games played with Tatum, which includes the first three games of this series.
Brown is averaging 20 field goal attempts in this series while shooting 50% from the field and from three. In the last two games, he has played 38 and 40 minutes. That combination of volume and opportunity will give him the opportunity to score 25 points or more once again.
Pick: Jaylen Brown 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Celtics Moneyline, Maxey Over
Jayson Tatum Over 22.5 Points
When Tatum returned from injury, he was not as efficient as we have come to expect from him, shooting 41.1% from the field and 32.9% from three. That was to be expected as he shook off the rust. However, he has seen a bump in this series, as he is shooting 49% from the field. He knocked down five of his nine 3-point attempts in Game 3 as he scored 25 points.
He has now scored exactly 25 points in two of the first three games in this series. He has scored 23 points in six of the last seven games he has played finishing with either 23 or 25 in all six overs. He has also scored 25 points in five of his seven games against the 76ers. Another big performance from him will help his Celtics take a 3-1 lead.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 22.5 Points
Tyrese Maxey Over 34.5 Points + Assists
Without Embiid, Maxey is the 76ers No. 1 option and focus of the Celtics' defensive game plan. However, that has not stopped him from averaging 27 points and 7.7 assists. He led the Sixers to an upset victory in Game 2 with 29 points and nine assists. He followed it up with 31 points and six assists in the loss on Friday.
Dating back to the regular season, Maxey has recorded 35 PA in four of his last six games. He also has cleared this line in eight of his last 11 games against the Celtics while averaging 36.7 PA per game. He has recorded six assists in 10 of his last 11 games against the Celtics while scoring 30 points in six of those games.
To extend this series, Philadelphia will need a big game from Maxey and I expect him to come out swinging.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 34.5 Points + Assists
Celtics Moneyline
It is often said that a closeout game is the most difficult game to win in a series. However, in this case, I believe tonight's game will be the most difficult for the Celtics to win as the last guaranteed home game for the 76ers. It is hard to see the Sixers winning three straight games with two of the three in Boston. The Celtics have closed out each of their last two first round series in five games.
Conversely, if the Sixers win tonight, a 2-2 series guarantees a Game 6 in Philadelphia. It gives Embiid (doubtful tonight) two more opportunities to return, making the Sixers more formidable. With that in mind, I expect Philadelphia to make this game a battle on its home floor, but the Celtics are still the better team.
Their two wins in this series have been by eight points or more, so at -7.5, they may also cover if they win tonight. However, they have won seven of the last 10 meetings outright, so the moneyline is a bit safer. Look for Brown and Tatum to lead the way.
Pick: Celtics Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+574,FanDuel)
- Jaylen Brown 25+ Points
- Jayson Tatum Over 22.5 Points
- Tyrese Maxey Over 34.5 Points + Assists
- Celtics Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1441, FanDuel)
- Jaylen Brown 25+ Points
- Jayson Tatum 25+ Points
- Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points
- Tyrese Maxey 6+ Assists
- Celtics Moneyline
