NBA Player Props Odds, Picks (Saturday, Aug. 8): Mike Conley, DeAndre Ayton Bets Provide Value
Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Conley #10 of the Utah Jazz
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Here’s how those props did this season prior to the shut down:
|FantasyLabs Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s five games:
- Jazz vs. Nuggets at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Suns vs. Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Utah Jazz, Mike Conley
The Prop: Over 5.5 assists (WilliamHill)
Mike Conley is one of the most reliable facilitators in the NBA, averaging 5.7 assists a game for his career.
But with Donovan Mitchell questionable (left peroneal strain), according to Eric Walden of the Salt Lake Tribune, Conley may need to continue performing slightly better than average in the passing department.
This season, Conley has dished 4.5 assists a game, but in four seeding games, he has tallied 5.8 assists per contest.
His highest was eight in Utah’s loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Even if Mitchell plays, Conley should fare well against the Nuggets’ defense. Damian Lillard was able to find holes in their defense with ease Thursday, dishing 12 assists in Portland’s win.
Conley has played Denver once this season, missing Utah’s January meeting against the Nuggets. In the one game he played, though, he dished five assists as the Jazz lost 98-95.
The Nuggets are 23rd in opponent assists per game (25.1), so Conley should do OK. Our player prop tool projects Conley will dish five assists. I would take the over here and bet to 6.5.
Phoenix Suns, Deandre Ayton
The Prop: Under 1.5 assists (Bet365)
Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming the quality scorer and rebounder NBA enthusiasts thought he would be.
Ayton isn’t in Phoenix to be Nikola Jokic 2.0 — nope, he’s there to be a bruiser down low and score at will. As only a second-year player, Ayton is scoring a career-high 18.9 points per game and grabbing a career-high 11.7 rebounds a game. He’s the No. 2 to rising star Devin Booker, and because of the duo, the Suns are the only undefeated team in the bubble.
Ayton’s form hasn’t dipped in Orlando. In four games, he’s scored 18.3 points per game and grabbed 9.3 rebounds a game. He had one game where he wasn’t a huge part of the offense, scoring seven points on 3-of-8 shooting in the Suns’ win over the Dallas Mavericks.
Ayton has only dished eight assists while in the bubble, with half of them coming in the Suns’ win against the Los Angeles Clippers. Our player prop tool projects Ayton will tally 1.6 assists. I would take the under here and keep it at 1.5.