Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Jaylen Brown Points, Marc Gasol Rebounds, More
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports. Picutred: Marc Gasol
- Wednesday's seven-game NBA slate features three player prop bets providing value.
- This piece will focus on Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr., Celtics SG Jaylen Brown and Raptors C Marc Gasol.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr.
THE PICK: Over 5 rebounds (-114)
JJJ hasn’t exactly been a rebounding maven to begin his career. He’s averaging just 5.1 rebounds per game this season after averaging just 4.7 rebounds per game as a rookie. That said, there are reasons for optimism with him today. He’s coming off a season-high 37.5 minutes in his last game, which continues a trend of increased playing time recently. He’s logged at least 29.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and he should see a similar amount of playing time today.
Jackson also has an appealing matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets. They rank just 22nd in rebound rate to begin the season, and they also rank just 26th in offensive efficiency. That’s a good formula for a bunch of rebound opportunities.
As long as JJJ continues to play around 30 minutes, he should be able to hit the over on this prop. I like it up to -135.
Celtics SG Jaylen Brown
THE PICK: Over 18.5 points (-125)
Brown is definitely someone you should consider buying in the prop market today. For starters, he has an elite matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 119.0 points represents a massive increase compared to their season average (113.4).
Brown should also benefit from the absence of Gordon Hayward. He saw a big boost in playing time without Hayward in his last game, logging 38.2 minutes, and he responded with 25 points. Brown has also seen a slight usage bump with Hayward off the court this season, so he should see increased scoring opportunities to go along with his increased playing time.
Brown has scored at least 19 points in four of his past five games, so you could argue this line is low to start. Factor in the matchup and Hayward’s absence, and I’d be willing to play it up to -150.
Raptors C Marc Gasol
THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (+100)
The Raptors are dealing with a bunch of injuries at the moment. Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are both expected to miss extended periods of time, which should solidify Gasol for a healthy amount of minutes. He’s played 33 minutes in each of his past two contests.
Still, increased minutes doesn’t necessarily guarantee increased rebounds for Gasol. He’s logged seven rebounds or fewer in five of his past six games, including each of his past four. He’ll also have to do battle on the interior with Hassan Whiteside today, who is one of the best individual rebounders in the league. Gasol figures to have his hands full in that matchup.
Gasol has never been a great rebounder for his size, and he’s currently averaging just 6.8 rebounds per game. This prop stops looking like a value around -115.