Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 17): Ride the Wave With Luka Doncic
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s seven games:
- Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors: 7 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks: 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive in.
Wizards PG Isaiah Thomas
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-140)
I lost with this prop on Wednesday, but I’m going right back to the well tonight. Thomas is still playing reduced minutes — he’s played 25.0 or fewer in each of his past nine games — but he shot the ball better than usual in his last contest. That should return to normal, and when it does, Thomas is not going to score more than 12 points very often. He’s scored nine points or fewer in seven of his past nine games.
His current matchup vs. the Raptors is also a daunting one. They rank second in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 110.0 points represents a significant decrease compared to their season average (114.6).
This prop is already juiced up pretty high, but it still offers significant value at the current number. I like the under up to -165.
76ers PF/C Al Horford
THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (-125)
Horford isn’t exactly a terror on the glass, but there’s a lot to like with him on today’s slate. For starters, he should continue to benefit from the absence of Joel Embiid. He’s increased his rebound rate by +0.8% with Embiid off the court this season, which is the second-highest mark on the team. That doesn’t sound like a huge increase, but it still results in an average of 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
His matchup vs. the Bulls is also very appealing. They rank just 28th in team rebound rate, so Horford should be able to do more damage than usual on the boards.
Horford has grabbed at least eight boards in three of his past four games, and I like his chances of making it four out of five. I’d play the over up to -150.
Hawks PF John Collins
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (+122)
These odds are really tasty for Collins, who has averaged 9.7 rebounds per game this season. That said, that number is a bit misleading. He’s averaged just 30.5 minutes per game, and he should improve on that number moving forward. Even if he doesn’t, Collins can still hit the over, which is something he’s done in three of his past four games.
His current matchup vs. the Spurs is not that intimidating, either: They rank just 14th in team rebound rate.
I love this prop at the current number, but I’d be willing to play the over up to even money.
Mavericks PG Luka Doncic
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-143)
Doncic recorded a big boy triple-double in his last contest, logging 25 points, 15 rebounds and 17 assists. Only a handful of players have recorded a triple-double with at least 15 points, rebounds and assists, and he’s the only player in NBA history to do it before his 21st birthday.
You can grab his odds to record a triple-double today at around +175 — which is definitely reasonable — but I’d rather look at his rebounding odds. He’s seen a big boost in his rebound numbers with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup this season; he’s averaged 11.0 rebounds per game in those contests.
There is really not much left to say at this point about Doncic, who is putting together an utterly dominant sophomore campaign. I’m actively targeting him in DFS and the prop market with Porzingis out of the lineup, and I’d play the over on his rebound prop up to -160.