Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 30): Will Nikola Jokic Have a Big Night Against Rudy Gobert?
Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic (15) of the Denver Nuggets.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Kings PF Nemanja Bjelica
THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (+110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It’s been a very up-and-down season for Nemanja Bjelica, who was held without a single point or rebound (he chipped in five assists) in 24 minutes of action vs. the Thunder.