Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 30): Will Nikola Jokic Have a Big Night Against Rudy Gobert?
Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic (15) of the Denver Nuggets.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Kings PF Nemanja Bjelica
THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (+110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It’s been a very up-and-down season for Nemanja Bjelica, who was held without a single point or rebound (he chipped in five assists) in 24 minutes of action vs. the Thunder.
Tonight looks like a great opportunity to bounce back against a Clippers team that has been relatively soft to opposing big men all season. That’s especially true since Sacramento will be without Marvin Bagley, which should mean big minutes for Bjelica.
We project Bjelica at 33.2 minutes and put him at 14 points and 9.3 rebounds in a very nice game stretching out the Clippers defense. That’s an excellent margin in our favor, and it’s especially tasty with that juicy +110 line. I’ll happily play Bjelica’s rebounds as high as -125 tonight.
Cavs PF Larry Nance
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-143) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Larry Nance returned from injury on Jan. 14 and has scored in double digits in six of eight games since, including the past five. But Nance’s physical limitations keep him to around 24 minutes each night, which is where we have him projected tonight.
Just that minutes limit gives Nance less time to get to double-digit points, and so does a tough matchup against a stout Raptors defense. Nance tends to score most of his points on easy buckets around the basket, and the Raptors don’t give away many easy points. We project Nance at 7.8 points tonight, so I’ll play this one up to -160.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic
THE PICK: Over 7.5 assists (-125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Denver remains severely hampered by injuries, with Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap the bigger names missing. That has meant a bigger role again for Nikola Jokic. He’s averaging 22.1 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 7.3 assists over the past two weeks.
Jokic has gone over 7.5 assists in half of those games, so those aren’t the best odds, but he has given Rudy Gobert trouble in the past since Gobert prefers to stay closer to the rim on defense.
Our model projects Jokic at 9.9 assists tonight, which means an excellent chance for a triple-double and a great spot to play his assists here. I like Jokic to have a big game and I’ll play him up to -150.