Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kevin Durant Points, More

Thursday’s best NBA player props focus two of the slate's three games:

• Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
• Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

Nuggets F Juancho Hernangomez

The Pick: Under 5.5 rebounds (+105)

This is another prop offering significant value on today’s slate. Paul Millsap recently returned to the Nuggets lineup, which has put a serious damper on Hernangomez’s playing time.

He played just 19.8 minutes in his last game and pulled down just two rebounds. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Kings — they rank second in pace and 26th in rebound rate — but that doesn’t really matter if he’s barley on the court.

I love getting this prop at better than even money, but I’d play it up to -150.

Warriors F Kevin Durant

The Pick: Under 27.5 points (+105)

The Warriors own the highest implied team total on today’s slate, but I still think there are reasons to expect Durant to struggle vs. the Rockets. For starters, the Rockets play at one of the slowest paces in the league, which will likely result in a few less possessions for the Warriors’ potent offense.

When the do have the ball, Durant will likely see the individual defense of P.J. Tucker, who has historically done as good a job as anyone at shutting him down. He limited him to just four points over 19 possessions in their first meeting, which represents a decrease of 15.7 points per 100 possessions when compared to his average.

This prop isn’t nearly as appealing as the first two, but I still think it offers some value. I wouldn’t play it above -110 though.