NBA Playoffs Odds & Betting Preview: Expert Picks, Best Bets for Round 1 Series
Getty Images/Matt Roembke of Action Network.
Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs is just around the corner and our NBA writers already have strong thoughts on some of the juiciest matchups.
The have 10 best bets for these first-round series, including series props, parlays, game totals and more. Check out their expert picks for five of the opening round series below.
NBA Odds & Picks
All listed odds have been updated as of April 13. Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing.
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs.
No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
By Joe Dellera
The 76ers should make quick work of a Brooklyn Nets team that likely has no answer for Joel Embiid despite the rise of Nic Claxton. The 76ers are just better. This season, Philly has the fifth-best Net Rating (+4.3). We can’t use Brooklyn's full season numbers based on their trades, but since March 1, the Nets have a +1 Point Differential, which ranks 17th and the Sixers have been even better over this stretch at +6.4, per Cleaning the Glass.
Mikal Bridges may bother James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, however, Embiid will dominate in this matchup. He’s averaged 31.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 2 games head to head against Claxton. This type of physicality over the course of a series will weigh heavily on Claxton and I expect Embiid to potentially improve as the series goes on.
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs.
No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
By Joe Dellera
This is really a matchup between James Harden and Spencer Dinwiddie and it’s mispriced. James Harden led the league in assists with 10.7 this season; however, since March 1, Dinwiddie has averaged 10.2 assists across 19 games in 35.7 minutes per game.
Historically, Harden has been an elite passer and routinely averages double-digit assists. Since he left the Houston Rockets, Harden has averaged 10.7 assists per game during the regular season. However, over his last two playoffs stints, he’s averaged just 8.6 assists per game across 21 games.
Dinwiddie’s role is clear, he is the primary facilitator for the Nets and at this price (+250), it implies that Dinwiddie would only lead the series in assists 28.57% of the time. This should be closer to even, despite Harden’s pedigree, due to Dinwiddie’s spike in assists since joining the Brooklyn Nets.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs.
No. 5 New York Knicks
By Jim Turvey
This is a play on a few factors. One is more analytical and one is less. Let’s do the less so first.
This bet has value because in betting Cavs -1.5, it means they have to do some work on the road — they can’t just win each home game en route to a series victory. The Knicks have long had an amazing home crowd, but not necessarily one that translates to victories. This happens in part because opposing superstars tend to enjoy the bright lights of Madison Square Garden even more than their own hometown players. Donovan Mitchell has that written all over him, so in a series where I favor Cleveland (more on that in a second), I am not worried about them having to win on the road. In fact, I’m leaning into it.
The more analytical lean to this bet is that the Cavs defense is very very legit. Jonathan Macri of the always excellent Knicks Film School had an outstanding breakdown of the Cavs defense today in which he laid out, in depth, just what makes them so good. In short, they are the best team in the league at limiting the number of threes their opposition gets, and they are among the very best teams in the league at protecting the rim. Take away those two options, and you’ve got an elite defense even without guys as skilled as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Maybe Jalen Brunson will go absolutely wild with the float game, and maybe R.J. Barrett or Julius Randle can cook for a game or two in the midrange, but the far more likely outcome is that they get locked up by an elite Cavs defense that moves on to the second round with relative ease.
No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors
Arguably the most exciting first round series features the Kings and Warriors, who were first and second in scoring this season. They averaged 234.25 total points per game in their four meetings as the Warriors were 3-1 in the season series and are -290 favorites to advance to the second round.
The Warriors were 11-30 on the road, which was the fourth-worst record away from home in the league. However, under head coach Steve Kerr in the playoffs, the Warriors have won a road game in all 24 series. They were favored in every series and have a 22-2 record with a ridiculous four NBA titles.
As bad as the Warriors were on the road, they were great at home with a record of 33-8. However, given the Warriors road struggles, winning this series over the Kings in six games (4-2) feels like the optimal outcome. This series ending in six games is the favorite, but the +185 odds are still very juicy.
The Kings are good enough offensively to light the beam twice against the Warriors. They led the league in Offensive Rating (118.6), while averaging 120.7 points per game. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox both averaged over 20 points in this matchup as Sabonis pulled down 16.7 rebounds per game. The pressure will be high as the No. 3 seed, but the Kings can win two home games.
Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins is expected back for the playoffs as he was the X-factor in their title run last season. He has been out for two months, but will be a huge addition to the playoff roster.
The Kings were a great story this season as head coach Mike Brown is the clear-cut favorite to win Coach of the Year. However, the Warriors are too experienced and should overwhelm the Kings at home. For a game-by-game prediction I would bet on the Warriors winning one of the first two games in Sacramento. They win all three home games, while the Kings win Game 5. This ends in six games.
No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors deserve plenty of love for maintaining position in the Western Conference this season, but it’s shocking to me the respect they still get despite their road record. The Dubs were a horrendous 11-30 SU in 41 road games this season. To their credit, they still went 33-8 SU in home games but that’s about as far as the praise stops because I am “lighting the beam” and taking the Kings at +1.5 games on the series spread at +135 and keep the first-round series close.
What gets lost in the shuffle of this matchup is this isn’t your Dad’s Kings. We all know the storied history of inefficiency of the franchise but Sacramento has made huge strides to relevance this season. The Kings were one of the most consistent teams offensively in the NBA with their lineup continuity and as result, finished with the best road record in the West at 25-16 SU. Again, not your Dad’s Kings.
Naturally, the first objection for backing the Kings is their choppy defense. Being near the bottom of the NBA in opponent 3-point attempts and 3-point shooting percentage can usually be a backbreaker for a contender but Sacramento’s offense has been so efficient this season (first in points per game at 121.7), it’s actually offset the ineptness.
The elephant in the room for the Warriors is the impact Andrew Wiggins may or may not have as he returns to the team. He missed over 20 games during the regular season without having a conditioning stint and could be limited at least for the first round.
It wasn’t a great end to the Warriors season, finishing 10-8 SU in 18 games after Steph Curry returned from injury. The glaring part of that record was the Warriors were 3-7 SU on the road and the Kings have home court advantage. I almost picked the Kings to win the series but the postseason inexperience was something that I couldn’t shake when facing the defending champs.
No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors
By Alex Hinton
The Sacramento Kings ended their 16-year playoff drought and earned the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. As a reward, they get the reigning champions in the first round. This year’s version of the Warriors have not been as dominant and they have been downright awful on the road.
The atmosphere in Golden 1 Arena will be electric on Saturday and I like the Kings to use that energy to out-pace the Warriors in what will likely be a track meet. Additionally, Andrew Wiggins will likely be on a minutes limit as well as he gets back into game shape.
However,I expect the Warriors to get at least one game in Sacramento and that is all they will need, provided they take care of business at the Chase Center. The Warriors still have the best player in this series (Stephen Curry) and have a lot more playoff experience. The Warriors also have the better perimeter defense in this series with Wiggins (once he gets re-acclimated), Gary Payton II, and Klay Thompson. The Kings ranked 25th in defensive rating in the regular season. They can score with anyone, but they will not be able to get enough stops to slow down Curry, Thompson, and Jordan Poole.
I like the Warriors to win this series in six games after the Kings take Game 1. Alternatively, you can take the Warriors to cover the series spread (-1.5), however at -168 odds. If the Kings take Game 1, this line offers much more value and cover if the Warriors need to win a game seven in Sacramento.
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No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs.
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
The Memphis crowd has really shown up this season. As the only professional team in Memphis, the Grizzlies get the benefit of a dedicated fan base that shows up for home games with intensity. The Grizzlies have wined and dined on that intensity all season, boasting the best home record in the league (35-6 straight up, 23-17-1 against the spread).
The Lakers own the season record at 2-1 straight up and ATS, but wins/covers have only come at home for both teams and the one home win for the Grizzlies came without LeBron James in February. I expect Memphis to get the Game 1 win and the oddsmakers do too—they’re -3.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. But the Lakers are 4-2 straight up as road dogs since the trade deadline and as the more experienced team, I expect them to get at least one win in Memphis, just not on opening night.
This is a bad matchup for the Grizzlies. Without the size and strength of Steven Adams and the versatility of Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies will have to lean on guys like Xavier Tillman and Santi Aldama to stop the Lakers' sizable rim attack and they’re a far cry from the defensive prowess of Adams and Clarke.
The Lakers are particularly well equipped to defeat Memphis this series as they get to the line better than any team that doesn’t have Joel Embiid. They’re also the eighth-best team in offensive rebound percentage, per Cleaning the Glass, while the Grizzlies rank 19th in both categories defensively.
I think the Grizzlies win Game 1, but it’ll be close, so I’ll look for in-game opportunities to bet the Lakers if the Grizzlies make a run at any point. The parlay price is +300 at DraftKings but I have this closer to +205.
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs.
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
By Chris Baker
Everyone enamored with the Lakers all of a sudden and I’m not sure why they deserve to be co-favorites with the 2-seed Grizzlies. Let me tidbit this with the fact that the Lakers have legitimately gotten better since the deadline.
They have certain Austin Reaves/D'Angelo Russell/LeBron James/Anthony Davis lineups with deadly net-ratings but these lineups have also occurred in too sample sizes too small to be meaningful, and against a ton of non-playoff teams.
The Grizzlies are legitimately banged-up. Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke are difficult losses, but this is still an extremely solid team in my opinion. They have a +4.4 net-rating with those two guys off the court. The Luke Kennard addition was huge, they have a +8.6 net-rating with him on the floor. The Grizzlies now have the ability to put two of the best three point shooters in the NBA next to an elite rim-threat in Ja Morant.
Speaking of Morant, who is supposed to guard him on this Lakers team? The Lakers are currently rolling out actual cones at the guard spot with Russell and Reaves. As I look across this roster, I’m not sure they have anyone who projects as a good matchup for Morant. He should have his way at the point of attack all series and that will lead to the Lakers consistently being in rotation.
On the flip side of the ball, we have a plethora of physical wing/big defenders who can switch multiple screens between James and Davis. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman could all theoretically switch onto both James and Davis and survive for a few possessions. That will be huge as the Grizzlies will not be forced into defensive rotations as consistently as the Lakers will. The Grizzlies' bench depth exceeds what the Lakers have as I have a lot of respect for Tyus Jones, John Konchar, and Luke Kennard.
Finally, the Grizzlies should have a significant math advantage as the Lakers appear to be prone to letting up 3s. L.A. has allowed the 22nd-highest 3-point attempt rate, but ranks second in 3-point accuracy allowed (34.8%). Their defense is significantly overrated and they will get humbled against Bane and Kennard. I bet the Grizzlies at -110 and would play this up to -120.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs.
No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics are my title favorite, and they caught a huge break when Atlanta beat Miami in the play-in. The Heat probably wouldn’t have beaten Boston anyway but Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and co. are a pain in the butt to play with their tenacious physicality. Atlanta presents no such problems, and I expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Hawks.
The Hawks take the most 2s in the NBA but the Celtics have an elite 2-point defense and rank first in Defensive Rating since Dec. 9. Atlanta ranks 19th in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 22nd in that stat defensively. Boston ranks top four in both, simply a far more efficient team with great shot profiles at both ends. The Hawks also rank dead last in 3-point attempt rate and bottom 10 in shooting percentage while Boston ranks top five in both, so the Celtics will win the 3s math every game too.
The numbers just don’t add up for Atlanta. Even one of Atlanta’s biggest strengths, its offensive rebounding that so dominated against Miami, should be muted against the league’s No. 1 defensive rebounding team. Boston can handle this offense, and the Celtics should score at ease. They put up a 129 Offensive Rating in the two meaningful games against Atlanta this season. Whew.
Can Atlanta pull a hot shooting night? Could Quin Snyder out-coach Joe Mazzulla in his debut? Sure, maybe, enough to take a game, but that’s all the further I see this going. Trae Young could be in for a miserable series against those guard defenders, and maybe a long summer of trade rumors after.
Given everything Atlanta has gone through this season, I have to nibble a Celtics sweep at +280 at PointsBet too. I expect Boston to go up 2-0 at home, and if they win Game 3, the Hawks roll over and go 1-2-3 Cancun for Game 4. I price a sweep around +180. This will be a quick series.
No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
By Munaf Manji
The Clippers will more than likely will be without their second best player, Paul George in this series. Now, they have the unenviable task of going up against the Phoenix Suns with a big three of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant. There is a reason the Suns are the favored to come out of the West to advance to the NBA Finals.
The Suns are undefeated in the Kevin Durant era with a 8-0 record. The Clippers won’t have the option to double team either Booker or Durant in this series. I believe the Suns will find a lot of success on the offensive end and I am not so sure the Clippers will be able to keep up. Furthermore, I question who will consistently step up for the Clippers in providing scoring support to Kawhi Leonard.
Despite the season series ending up in 2-2 split, the Suns sat all of their starters in the last matchup of the season and almost one. The Suns were also 3-1 against the spread in the four matchups this season. Additionally, the Suns have been dominate at home in the playoff since the 2018-19 season. In fact, the Suns have a 13-5 home record in the playoffs in that span. I expect the Suns to get out to a 2-0 lead, then steal a home game in Los Angeles and go on to either sweep or finish the series in five games.
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