The NBA regular season is back with an excellent slate of games on Monday night, with a total of 9 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for six of tonight's contests, including bets for Bucks vs Pacers, Kings vs Nuggets, and Pistons vs Grizzlies.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, November 3.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Monday, November 3
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Timberwolves vs. Nets
Lots of signals here that this number is way too low. The over is 8-4 on these two teams combined this season.
The Wolves are top-five in half-court offense, even without Anthony Edwards for most of the small sample.
The Timberwolves' big problem is usually turnovers, but they’ve been better at that this season. Even then, Brooklyn is in the bottom-10 in opponent turnover rate.
Minnesota’s defense is hanging in at 12th overall, but they’re actually 23rd in halfcourt defense. Meanwhile, the Nets surprisingly rank 14th in halfcourt offense.
This is the first time this season that a total has been under 230 for the Nets at home. If you want to play the Wolves team total over individually, it’s not a bad idea, but I like the combined total here.
Pick: Over 226.5
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Bucks vs. Pacers
Here’s a trend I don’t love fading: Rick Carlisle as a home 'dog with the Pacers is 40-28-2 ATS.
But this team is so banged up. Based on the injuries, I project this at Bucks -7.2.
Yes, the Pacers are 4-2 ATS because Carlisle is a warlock and the market overexaggerates certain injuries. But the market power rating line on this game based on Inpredictable.com’s numbers is Bucks -6.2
Indiana is playing its third game in four nights against a team that is highly motivated to beat Indiana.
The Pacers busted them from the playoffs two years in a row.
Milwaukee went 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS against the Pacers last year before Dame had a blood clot and then tore his Achilles and the whole thing fell apart.
Giannis will be a monster; the Pacers have no one except Siakam to slow him down.
Since it’s inside two possessions, I’ll reluctantly bet the Bucks here.
Pick: Bucks -5.5
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Celtics vs. Jazz
This is a sneaky under spot.
The Celtics are 5-2 to the under this season and have really struggled with their transition offense, ranking in the bottom-10, while Utah, by some grace of God, is actually top five in transition defense — both points and points per possession — despite their horrible halfcourt offense.
Boston ranks 29th in pace, 26th in offensive possession length, and 29th in defensive possession length via DunksAndThrees.com. They are actually a glacial team.
Utah does give up the highest percentage of threes of any team; the Celtics are going to bomb from deep even more so than usual.
However, Boston’s only 32.6% from long range so far this year. They haven’t found their stroke.
Maybe it happens here, but it’s enough to go against a big number like this.
I project this at 229.5 points.
Pick: Under 232.5
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Mavericks vs. Rockets
Jim Turvey was on this prop in last night's Buckets podcast. Steven Adams has hit the over on this in 80% of the games this season.
The Mavericks rank 22nd in 3-point rate. So, there will be fewer long rebounds.
Anthony Davis and Derick Lively are both out for Dallas. The two-big lineup is going to eat for the Rockets tonight.
I looked for more inventive approaches here, but it really just is Adams over on rebounds.
Pick: Steven Adams Over 6.5 Rebounds
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Kings vs. Nuggets
Brown has gone over this line in every game this season, and 11 straight games going back to last season.
Brown plays a big role in rebounding to get the ball up the floor quickly in the bench units.
With Russell Westbrook starting, he won’t be matched up against Brown as often, which takes away one of the Kings' rebounding guards.
Denver wants to push pace at home; they’ll look to get Brown going up court with the ball against a Kings team in altitude.
Pick: Bruce Brown Over 3.5 Rebounds
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Pistons vs. Grizzlies
Memphis is still starting Jock Landale. They have two bigs, Landale and Jaren Jackson Jr., who struggle rebounding.
Duren looks like he’s taking a leap.
It’s buying high off his career-high performance last game, but that’s why we’re going for double-double instead of the over on points and rebounds.
Cade Cunningham is figuring out how easy the game can be with Duren cutting, and the Memphis defense isn’t in a place with their injuries to hold up.
Pick: Jalen Duren Double-Double (-150)
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