When it comes to NBA player props, we don't just settle for the median outcome. If the matchups, rotations, and underlying metrics tell us a player is in a smash spot, we aren't stopping at the base line. We are building the ladder and riding the escalator all the way to the top.
Let's get into my NBA player prop ladders and escalator picks for Wednesday, November 11.
NBA Player Prop Ladders for Wednesday, November 11
- Luka Doncic 35+ Points (-126) | 36+ Points (-107) | 40+ Points (+178)
- Deni Avdija 23+ Points (-123) | 25+ Points (+120) | 30+ Points (+316)
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Luka Doncic Points Escalator
The league's leading scorer has a juicy Wednesday matchup.
Luka Doncic is averaging a career-high 39.3 points per game and will lead the NBA's most productive offense into battle against the Bucks in his next contest. Milwaukee has struggled defensively in 2026-27, allowing 121.2 points per game. Only the Pelicans (122.5) and Bulls (129.3) have been worse. Those weaknesses will likely put Doncic in a great spot.
Teams put up a ton of shots against Milwaukee because it can't secure defensive rebounds. Opposing teams are corralling a league-high 15.0 offensive rebounds per game, helping them hoist up 93.3 attempts per contest.
The underdogs are also susceptible to the long ball and concede 14.8 made triples per outing. Only three teams allow more, so Doncic should feel right at home, putting up 13.5 shots from beyond the arc per appearance. He's converting those looks at a ridiculous 40.7% rate so far.
The Lakers star has already eclipsed 40 points six times in 10 games this season. He can raise that number to seven in a fast-paced game with plenty of second-chance opportunities. I'm not willing to go as high as 45 points on an alternate line for him, but these odds are well within reason. I'm comfortable betting half a unit on each rung.
Luka Doncic Points Escalator
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Lakers vs Bucks betting preview!
Deni Avdija Points Escalator
Deni Avdija will get to run it back against the Thunder in the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday.
The Trail Blazers wing scored 24 points in a blowout win on Tuesday and didn't reach his full potential because the game was settled pretty early down the stretch. However, I expect a closer contest in round two.
Avdija leads Portland in points per game (22.5) and will be on the ball more while Ja Morant recovers from an injury. He used his physicality against OKC's three-guard starting lineup by getting downhill and earning six of his 24 points at the charity stripe. He attempted eight total free throws in that matchup and is averaging an impressive 9.2 attempts per contest in 2026-27.
Expect more of the same on Wednesday. Oklahoma City needs capable wing defenders with Jalen Williams sidelined and is missing rim protection with Chet Holmgren out. The Portland wing can capitalize on both absences.
The Thunder have allowed almost 10.0 more points per game since the duo suffered significant injuries on Oct. 26. The league's third-highest-scoring offense is built to manipulate a defense that's still adjusting to new personnel and rotations. Half a unit or less is likely ideal for each leg of this escalator, given Avdija's season average.
Deni Avdija Points Escalator
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Thunder vs Blazers betting preview!
