This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.
Thursday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 1 of the NBA Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET:
- Tristan Thompson (Cavaliers) over/under 7.5 points
- Stephen Curry (Warriors) over/under 25.5 points
- JR Smith (Cavaliers) over/under 9.5 points
Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool and our FREE Game 1 Props Sheet.
Tristan Thompson Under 7.5 Points (-115)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Thompson played an important role for the Cavaliers during the Eastern Conference Finals but still averaged just 7.4 points per game. Though he logged nearly 28 minutes per game in that series, he’s not guaranteed to play anywhere near as many against the Warriors. Golden State plays much smaller and faster than the Celtics, forcing the Cavs to play smaller lineups in response. Thompson was essentially benched for most of the Pacers series; he's never exactly been entrenched in the rotation.
Stephen Curry over 25.5 Points (-130)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Curry seemed to get his mojo going in the last few games of the Rockets series, exceeding 25.5 points in four of his past five games. Still, he has room for growth considering his shooting numbers over that time frame: He shot "just" 47.7% from the field and 40.3% from 3-point range, both of which are decreases when compared to his regular-season average. He also gets a nice upgrade in matchup against the Cavaliers, who are allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions during the postseason.
JR Smith Under 9.5 Points (+100)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Minutes have not been an issue for Smith during the postseason, but they haven’t translated to a lot of scoring. Smith averaged just 6.1 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals and won't see much of an upgrade in matchup against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, as Golden State was tied for eighth in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed just 99.7 points per 100 possessions during the postseason.
All lines accurate as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 31.
