NBA Finals Odds Tracker: Game 5 Win Shifts Series Odds Heavily for Warriors

NBA Finals Odds Tracker: Game 5 Win Shifts Series Odds Heavily for Warriors article feature image

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 and Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Golden State Warriors during Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Odds

Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel

 Warriors Celtics
Series Winner-400+310
Win in 4+1100+700
Win in 5+750+350
Win in 6+125+300
Win in 7+145 +280

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Series Picks | MVP Odds | MVP Picks | Finals Schedule

After Game 5

Despite an ugly shooting night from Steph Curry (7-of-22 from field, 0-of-9 from 3), the Warriors won Game 5 over the Celtics, 104-94, at home. It was the Andrew Wiggins show on Monday, as the forward scored 26 points and 13 rebounds to lead the home team.

Meanwhile, the Warriors' depth shined again. They outscored Boston by 11 bench points thanks to strong efforts from Gary Payton II and Jordan Poole.

Golden State is now heavily favored to win the championship (-420 on FanDuel) despite having to travel to Boston for Game 6.

After Game 4

The Warriors needed a win and Stephen Curry delivered. Curry scored 43 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as the Warriors won 107-97 and evened up the series at two games apiece. The Celtics had dominated the fourth quarter throughout this series, but Golden State outscored Boston 28-19 in the final frame of Game 4 and has now won a road game in 27 consecutive playoff series. Klay Thompson contributed 18 points and Andrew Wiggins added 17, but it was clearly Curry carrying the Warriors. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 23 points and Jaylen Brown added 21. The Warriors are now -150 to win the series with two of the final three (if necessary) games taking place in San Francisco.

After Game 3

Just as they did in Game 1, the Celtics dominated the fourth quarter en route to victory. Boston got off to a fast start and led by as many as 17 in the first half. However, the Warriors stormed back in the third quarter and took a brief lead, but were unable to hold on. Boston won the fourth quarter, 23-11, and ultimately won Game 3, 116-100. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 31 points and Klay Thompson dropped 25 as well, but the Splash Brothers were no match for Boston's trio. Jaylen Brown led the way with 27 points, Jayson Tatum scored 26 and Marcus Smart had 24, too.

After Game 2

Game 2 was essentially a must win for the Warriors and Golden State responded. The Warriors took a two-point lead into the half and then exploded in the third quarter. Golden State outscored Boston 35-14 in the third and cruised to a 107-88 win in Game 2. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 29 points and Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 28. The Warriors reclaimed their role as the favorites to win the title and the series is now knotted up at one game each as it shifts to Boston for Games 3 and 4.

After Game 1

Stephen Curry got off to a fast start and scored 21 points, including six three pointers, in the first quarter. However, the Celtics came back from multiple double-digit deficits and escaped Chase Center with a 120-108 win in Game 1. Boston, led by Al Horford's 26 points on 9-of-12 shooting, dominated the fourth quarter. The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final quarter and are now favored to win the series.

Before Game 1

The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, two of the NBA's cornerstone franchises, will play in much-anticipated NBA Finals matchup Thursday at Chase Center. The Celtics advanced first after defeating the Dallas Mavericks in five games, while the Boston Celtics beat the Miami Heat in six to make their first Finals since 2010.

The Warriors opened as favorites, no surprise considering they have the home-court advantage, but the Celtics' odds to win the series have moved leading up to tip-off. The Celtics are still 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Game 1 and face an uphill battle against a dynasty looking to add to its legend.

Staff Series Bets

Matt Moore: Celtics -1.5 Series Games (+210, Caesars)
I’m not of the mind that this is an all-time great Celtics team. The idea of it being as good defensively as the '04 Detroit Pistons, '05 San Antonio Spurs, or even the '14 Indiana Pacers is wrong. But this isn’t a year where you need to be all-time great. You just need to be great enough, and they are. The margin for the Warriors as teams have figured them out later in the series has been their talent advantage. Boston has enough talent to sustain that.

Brandon Anderson: Warriors Win Game 1 / Celtics Win Series (+400, BetMGM)
Game 1 is a bet against a tired team coming off back-to-back Game 7s, and a bet on a team that’s been nearly invincible at home early in the playoffs. It sounds crazy, but I’m just not sure I trust Golden State’s offense to find enough answers against this defense. I’ll like Boston more the longer this series goes, so as long as the Celtics can hang in there and take the early punch, I’ll back them to come back and win it late.

Joe Dellera: Warriors Win Game 1 / Celtics Win Series (+400, BetMGM)
The Warriors' perpetual motion offense is not easy adjust to; add in the rest advantage and there’s an edge in Game 1. As for the series, Boston is the only team in the NBA with a winning record (9-7) against the Warriors in the Kerr era. While regular season doesn’t matter much, the Celtics have a truly elite defense, and have responded and adjusted whenever they have lost a game during this postseason — they have not dropped consecutive games yet.

Austin Wang: Stephen Curry — Most Made 3s Per Game (+105, FanDuel)
This isn't a pick in the series, but the NBA's greatest shooter is has an implied probability of 48.8% to have the highest average 3-pointers made in the NBA Finals. Many bettors will take him to be Finals MVP, but the odds are shorter and there is more risk if the Celtics win the series or if another player on the Warriors steps up. There is no need to overthink this. Back the best 3-point shooter in history at plus-odds.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel

PlayerFinals MVP Odds
Stephen Curry-350
Jayson Tatum+400
Jaylen Brown+1800
Andrew Wiggins+2000
Marcus Smart+11000
Klay Thompson+13000
Draymond Green+15000
Robert Williams III+49000
Al Horford+49000
Derrick White+49000

Staff Finals MVP Bets

Matt Moore: Jayson Tatum (+190 — Caesars)
This is Occam’s razor if you think Boston wins the series. Tatum is the head of the snake and will target the Warriors’ smaller defenders. He’s the guy who can best beat their switching defense with one-on-one play, and he’s become a great playmaker on top of it. If Tatum doesn’t play at a Finals MVP level, the path for the Celtics to win becomes perilously narrow.

Brandon Anderson: Marcus Smart (45-1 — DraftKings)
The Finals MVP almost always just goes to the top scorer on the winning team. Just that description alone covers 12 of the last 14 winners — everyone but Iguodala in 2015 and Kawhi Leonard in 2014. And what did those two have in common? They won MVP in large part because of their defensive roles against the opposing team’s superstar. Smart is the X-factor, and he is not afraid of the moment. He’s a long shot to win, but there’s a real path.

Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Schedule

    • Game 1:Celtics 120, Warriors 108
    • Game 2: Celtics 88, Warriors 107
    • Game 3: Warriors 100, Celtics 116
    • Game 4:Warriors 107, Celtics 97
    • Game 5:Warriors 104, Celtics 94
    • Game 6: Thursday, June 16 | 9 p.m. ET on ABC
    • Game 7: Sunday, June 19 | 8 p.m. ET on ABC

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Sean Treppedi
Jun 12, 2024 UTC