Finding value in the NBA totals market is all about identifying pace, defensive coverages, and regression spots. I've looked at the numbers for tonight's slate and narrowed it down to my favorite over/under spots on the board.
Let's get into my NBA total predictions and over/under picks for Wednesday, October 28.
NBA Total Predictions for Wednesday, October 28
- Hornets Team Total Over 102.5 (-115, DraftKings)
- Lakers-Clippers Total Over 229.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Charlotte Hornets Team Total Over/Under Pick
The Charlotte Hornets are surprisingly 3-1 and will face off against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. Neither team has been especially dynamic on offense in 2026-27.
Charlotte ranks dead last in points per game (104.0), alongside the New York Knicks. However, its 81-point dud against the Atlanta Hawks is skewing the data. That still doesn't make the Hornets an elite scoring team by any measure. Their style of play can comfortably help them exceed expectations against Detroit, though.
Charlotte has scored at least 110.0 points in three of its four games this season. It attempted a league-high 45.3 points per game in those contests. While its 29.8% conversion rate from deep is less than ideal, the volume is encouraging.
Detroit is a sturdy defensive team, but won't be at full capacity. Jalen Duren is out with an ankle injury, so the Pistons' rebounding and interior defense will suffer. That bodes well for Moussa Diabate, who consistently creates second-chance opportunities on the boards. He leads the league with 22 offensive rebounds and hauls in 5.5 per contest.
The Hornets aren't likely to stop shots from beyond the arc. They can get the job done against a Pistons defense that's giving up 12.8 made triples per game.
Pick: Over 102.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Los Angeles Clippers Over/Under Pick
Los Angeles' two teams are already set to play for the second time this season. There shouldn't be a shortage of offense in round two.
The Lakers are fresh off their first loss of the season, but their scoring offense is only second to the Portland Trail Blazers. Luka Doncic, the league's leading scorer, is averaging 36.0 points per game as his team's hub. Los Angeles is averaging 128.3 points per game as a team.
Few teams are getting to the charity stripe like the Lakers. Doncic is attempting 10.0 free throws per game. That's a third of the Lakers' team average (30.0), which ranks third in the league. Now let's talk about the Lakers' efficiency. The Lakers lead the league in team field-goal percentage (55.1%) and three-point percentage. They can do the heavy lifting in this matchup, but the Clippers are no slouches.
The Clippers aren't struggling to put the ball in the basket post-Kawhi Leonard. They hung 117 points on the Lakers in a game that totaled 242 points late last week, and rank fifth in team field-goal percentage (49.2%). The Clippers also excel as shooters. They are converting their triples at a 40.9% rate, which only the Lakers can top.
Neither team wastes many opportunities, so it will likely take an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from one side for the total to fall short of the over.
Pick: Over 229.5 (-110, DraftKings)
